From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Nov 28 05:51:53 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oARLpp1K005924 for ; Sun, 28 Nov 2010 05:51:53 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAPHiL23000834; Sat, 27 Nov 2010 15:51:39 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4518952 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 27 Nov 2010 15:51:39 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oARLpdw2004991 for ; Sat, 27 Nov 2010 15:51:39 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oARLpWD8027762 for ; Sat, 27 Nov 2010 15:51:38 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8E5683FE084E; Sat, 27 Nov 2010 15:51:32 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101127215132.8E5683FE084E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 27 Nov 2010 15:51:32 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 312 FXPQ60 PGUM 272151 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 751 AM CHST SUN NOV 28 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. A SHEAR LINE JUST 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS SHOULD NOT COME MUCH CLOSER...AND WILL HAVE NO DIRECT EFFECT ON WEATHER IN THE FORECAST ZONES. && .DISCUSSION... BIGGEST EFFECT OF SHEAR LINE SEEMS TO BE NUDGING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF DRY SEASON IS HERE...A COUPLE OF MONTHS EARLY. THE MOST RECENT HIGH SEAS PRODUCT FROM RSMC TOKYO INDICATES GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THESE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT HERE. THE INHERITED GRIDS LOOKED GOOD SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. THE GFS40 GIVES US BARELY OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF WHICH SHOULD ALREADY HAVE FALLEN AND DID NOT. WHILE THIS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AS AN EXACT TOTAL...IT DOES INDICATE WE SHOULD EXPECT THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF-HIRES IS EVEN A BIT MORE STINGY...GIVING US A BIT LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE NEXT TEN DAYS. && .MARINE... TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL SHOULD REMAIN A BIT SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. IF THE WAVES AND SWELLS DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER THESE ADVISORIES COULD STILL BE REQUIRED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DRY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE GOING TO MAINTAIN FAIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS BOTH CHUUK AND POHNPEI THRU MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO MAJURO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND KOSRAE BY THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO THE NICE WEATHER OVER POHNPEI AND CHUUK BY MIDWEEK. A TRADE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE FROM THE DISTURBANCE COULD PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MAJURO THRU MIDWEEK BUT MIGHT STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE INSTEAD. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WEATHER OVER PALAU WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND A TUTT CELL NEARBY. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER PALAU BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO MONDAY. WITH BOTH IR AND ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATING THE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF YAP...DRY TRADE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND THRU MIDWEEK. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD SPREAD TO PALAU AS WELL. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.