Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 27 Nov 2010 15:51:32 -0600

312 
FXPQ60 PGUM 272151
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
751 AM CHST SUN NOV 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. A SHEAR LINE JUST 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS
SHOULD NOT COME MUCH CLOSER...AND WILL HAVE NO DIRECT EFFECT ON
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST EFFECT OF SHEAR LINE SEEMS TO BE NUDGING THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF DRY SEASON IS
HERE...A COUPLE OF MONTHS EARLY. THE MOST RECENT HIGH SEAS PRODUCT
FROM RSMC TOKYO INDICATES GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE SHEAR
LINE...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THESE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT HERE. THE
INHERITED GRIDS LOOKED GOOD SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. THE GFS40
GIVES US BARELY OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF WHICH SHOULD ALREADY HAVE FALLEN AND DID NOT. WHILE THIS SHOULD
BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AS AN EXACT TOTAL...IT DOES INDICATE
WE SHOULD EXPECT THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF-HIRES IS EVEN A BIT MORE STINGY...GIVING US A
BIT LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE NEXT TEN DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL SHOULD REMAIN A BIT SHORT OF SMALL
CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. IF THE WAVES AND SWELLS DEVELOP
MUCH FURTHER THESE ADVISORIES COULD STILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE GOING TO MAINTAIN FAIR AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS BOTH CHUUK AND POHNPEI THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER
TO MAJURO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND KOSRAE BY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO THE NICE WEATHER OVER
POHNPEI AND CHUUK BY MIDWEEK. A TRADE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE FROM THE DISTURBANCE
COULD PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MAJURO THRU MIDWEEK BUT MIGHT
STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE INSTEAD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WEATHER OVER PALAU WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND A TUTT CELL NEARBY. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER PALAU BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO MONDAY. WITH BOTH IR AND ASCAT SATELLITE
DATA INDICATING THE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF YAP...DRY TRADE
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND THRU MIDWEEK. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD SPREAD
TO PALAU AS WELL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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