Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 15:36:49 -0600

662 
FXPQ60 PGUM 282136
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
736 AM CHST MON NOV 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND EASTWARD
FROM THE MARIANAS ALL THE WAY TO THE DATE LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ANOMALOUS NOVEMBER SHEAR LINE HAS STALLED NEAR FARALLON DE
PAJAROS...MUCH AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY. THE BIGGEST EFFECT FOR THE
FORECAST ZONES HAS BEEN TO DECREASE RAINFALL BY NUDGING THE DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD WINTRY AIR FROM
ASIA WILL MAINTAIN THIS BOUNDARY...MEANING WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST
A FEW MORE DAYS OF DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE NOVEMBER
WILL BE LESS THAN HALF OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL...DUE PRIMARILY TO
THE EARLY ONSET OF DRY SEASON. INHERITED GRIDS REFLECTED ALL OF
THIS WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHORT OF HIGH SURF AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED DOWN OVERNIGHT AT MAJURO BUT SHALLOW 
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KOSRAE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINKS 
KOSRAE AND THE CENTRAL MARSHALLS...THEN CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 22N175W. MODELS BRING THE 
CIRCULATION SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 20N180 THEN SEND IT WEST- 
NORTHWESTWARD...BRINGING IT NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND BY LATE WEEK. 
STRONGER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION 
HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE NORTH SWELL THAT WILL SUBSIDE OVER 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER WEST. THE TROUGH 
WILL BE SLUGGISH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS 
THIS MORNING AT KOSRAE SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...AN 
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE 
THE ONLY CHANGES IN STORE FOR POHNPEI AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES 
TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NEAR PALAU AS A TROUGH EXITS THE 
AREA...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AN 
APPROACHING TRADE-WIND SURGE IS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EAST 
AND SOUTHEAST OF YAP...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 
BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT YAP OR PALAU. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR ALL 
LOCATIONS...CREATING CHOPPY SEAS...BUT HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOT 
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.