From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Nov 29 05:37:20 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oASLbI4A030082 for ; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 05:37:19 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAS3RJ4R000834; Sun, 28 Nov 2010 15:36:56 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4527334 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 28 Nov 2010 15:36:55 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oASLatgf027251 for ; Sun, 28 Nov 2010 15:36:55 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oASLan7I007728 for ; Sun, 28 Nov 2010 15:36:55 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0C6053FE0853; Sun, 28 Nov 2010 15:36:49 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101128213649.0C6053FE0853@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 15:36:49 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 662 FXPQ60 PGUM 282136 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 736 AM CHST MON NOV 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE MARIANAS ALL THE WAY TO THE DATE LINE. && .DISCUSSION... THE ANOMALOUS NOVEMBER SHEAR LINE HAS STALLED NEAR FARALLON DE PAJAROS...MUCH AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY. THE BIGGEST EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST ZONES HAS BEEN TO DECREASE RAINFALL BY NUDGING THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD WINTRY AIR FROM ASIA WILL MAINTAIN THIS BOUNDARY...MEANING WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS OF DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE NOVEMBER WILL BE LESS THAN HALF OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL...DUE PRIMARILY TO THE EARLY ONSET OF DRY SEASON. INHERITED GRIDS REFLECTED ALL OF THIS WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHORT OF HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED DOWN OVERNIGHT AT MAJURO BUT SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KOSRAE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINKS KOSRAE AND THE CENTRAL MARSHALLS...THEN CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 22N175W. MODELS BRING THE CIRCULATION SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 20N180 THEN SEND IT WEST- NORTHWESTWARD...BRINGING IT NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND BY LATE WEEK. STRONGER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE NORTH SWELL THAT WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE SLUGGISH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT KOSRAE SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANGES IN STORE FOR POHNPEI AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NEAR PALAU AS A TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TRADE-WIND SURGE IS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF YAP...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT YAP OR PALAU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR ALL LOCATIONS...CREATING CHOPPY SEAS...BUT HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PERIOD OF THE SWELL. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.