Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 01:23:28 -0600

873 
FXPQ60 PGUM 290722
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
522 PM CHST MON NOV 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. GUSTY TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY PEAK ON TUESDAY. A FEW MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER WINDS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODELS DO HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY INCREASE THE
SHOWER COVERAGE. MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT 700 MB RH SHOULD TUMBLE ON
THURSDAY TO AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT. AT ANY RATE STILL ONLY EXCEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR
20 KNOTS TUESDAY. WITH WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OR
HIGHER EXPECTED AT TIMES ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ANOTHER
INCENTIVE FOR THE ADVISORY IS THE EXPECTED COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FEET
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE 9 FEET IS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF 10
FOOT COMBINED SEAS. A FEW OF THE MODELS KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH THE SHORTER TIME PERIOD AND IF ADVERSE
CONDITIONS PERSIST THE ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER KOSRAE. AN
EARLIER ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS STRATIFIED OVER KOSRAE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PROVOKING MORE DEEP
CONVECTION BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR KOSRAE AS AN
ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TRANSLATES WESTWARD OVER
POHNPEI TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS DEVELOPING
NEAR MAJURO. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE DATELINE.
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWER COVERAGE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM...A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERED NORTHEAST OF MAJURO IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE CIRCULATION WILL PASS
NEAR MAJURO AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IF IT PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH...OR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IF IT PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY CONDITIONS OVER CHUUK COULD END BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD FROM NEAR POHNPEI. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK OVER CHUUK AS
ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR MAJURO HEADS INTO THE
REGION. ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF YAP TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PALAU TODAY HAVE MOVED
WEST AS ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION FORMS TO THE EAST. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
TUTT CELL CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF CHUUK. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL RESUME OVER PALAU WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CHST TUESDAY
FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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