From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Nov 29 15:23:57 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAT7NtXV012849 for ; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 15:23:56 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAS24Ak4017012; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 01:23:35 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4531706 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 01:23:35 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAT7NZBt001398 for ; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 01:23:35 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAT7NTNB011206 for ; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 01:23:35 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id EFBB13FE0853; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 01:23:28 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101129072328.EFBB13FE0853@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 01:23:28 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 873 FXPQ60 PGUM 290722 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 522 PM CHST MON NOV 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. GUSTY TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY PEAK ON TUESDAY. A FEW MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER WINDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODELS DO HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WEDNESDAY BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE. MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT 700 MB RH SHOULD TUMBLE ON THURSDAY TO AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT. AT ANY RATE STILL ONLY EXCEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TUESDAY. WITH WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER EXPECTED AT TIMES ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ANOTHER INCENTIVE FOR THE ADVISORY IS THE EXPECTED COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE 9 FEET IS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF 10 FOOT COMBINED SEAS. A FEW OF THE MODELS KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH THE SHORTER TIME PERIOD AND IF ADVERSE CONDITIONS PERSIST THE ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER KOSRAE. AN EARLIER ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS STRATIFIED OVER KOSRAE. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PROVOKING MORE DEEP CONVECTION BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR KOSRAE AS AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TRANSLATES WESTWARD OVER POHNPEI TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS DEVELOPING NEAR MAJURO. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE DATELINE. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWER COVERAGE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM...A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED NORTHEAST OF MAJURO IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE CIRCULATION WILL PASS NEAR MAJURO AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IF IT PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH...OR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IF IT PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DRY CONDITIONS OVER CHUUK COULD END BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD FROM NEAR POHNPEI. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK OVER CHUUK AS ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR MAJURO HEADS INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF YAP TODAY AND WILL REMAIN WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PALAU TODAY HAVE MOVED WEST AS ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION FORMS TO THE EAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOMORROW AS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A TUTT CELL CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF CHUUK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RESUME OVER PALAU WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ151>154. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.