Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 15:42:32 -0600

068 
FXPQ60 PGUM 292141
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
741 AM CHST TUE NOV 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE MARIANAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST IS ALSO ADDING
TO THE MIX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPGRADED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY BASED ON THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
AND SATELLITE SHOWING A SLUG OF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS HEADED OUR WAY.
SO FAR THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKLUSTER...EITHER A TRACE OR 0.01
INCHES. PGUA RADAR JUST CAME BACK ONLINE THOUGH AND SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE AREA. BIG FORECAST PROBLEMS
THIS MORNING WILL BE WHETHER TO UPDATE TO REDUCE THE SHOWERS TODAY
AND WHETHER TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED BETWEEN KOSRAE AND 
KWAJALEIN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS HAS STEADILY BACKED EASTWARD 
TOWARD MAJURO THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MAJURO CAN EXPECT TO SEE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 
TODAY BEFORE CONVECTION STRATIFIES AND DISSIPATES. A TRADE-WIND 
TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTH OF MAJURO BRINGING LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS 
TO THE ATOLL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP NEAR 
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...BUT DECIDED TO ADD MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE 
OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AT POHNPEI AS THE AREA LIES UNDER A REGION OF 
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A TUTT CELL SITTING NORTHWEST OF CHUUK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF POHNPEI WILL REACH CHUUK LATER 
TODAY. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST MAY HELP TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM 
OR TWO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH IS 
A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AND THE TROUGH MAY REACH CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON 
BRINGING ABOUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF DEEPER CONVECTION. FARTHER 
WEST...CONDITIONS ARE SETTLING DOWN FOR PALAU AS A TROUGH EXITS TO 
THE WEST. STRONGER TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS AT BOTH YAP AND PALAU WITH THE ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS 
COMING LATE IN THE WEEK AS CONVECTION NEAR CHUUK PUSHES WESTWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

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