From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Nov 30 05:43:15 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oATLhDTh029450 for ; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 05:43:14 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oATIkdSA000834; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 15:42:56 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4542490 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 15:42:42 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oATLgdOA016254 for ; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 15:42:39 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oATLgW58016479 for ; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 15:42:38 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 90EBA3FE0856; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 15:42:32 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101129214232.90EBA3FE0856@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 15:42:32 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 068 FXPQ60 PGUM 292141 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 741 AM CHST TUE NOV 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS APPROACHING THE MARIANAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST IS ALSO ADDING TO THE MIX. && .DISCUSSION... UPGRADED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY BASED ON THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SATELLITE SHOWING A SLUG OF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS HEADED OUR WAY. SO FAR THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKLUSTER...EITHER A TRACE OR 0.01 INCHES. PGUA RADAR JUST CAME BACK ONLINE THOUGH AND SHOWS THAT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE AREA. BIG FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS MORNING WILL BE WHETHER TO UPDATE TO REDUCE THE SHOWERS TODAY AND WHETHER TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED BETWEEN KOSRAE AND KWAJALEIN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS HAS STEADILY BACKED EASTWARD TOWARD MAJURO THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MAJURO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY BEFORE CONVECTION STRATIFIES AND DISSIPATES. A TRADE-WIND TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTH OF MAJURO BRINGING LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE ATOLL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP NEAR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...BUT DECIDED TO ADD MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AT POHNPEI AS THE AREA LIES UNDER A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A TUTT CELL SITTING NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF POHNPEI WILL REACH CHUUK LATER TODAY. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST MAY HELP TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH IS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AND THE TROUGH MAY REACH CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING ABOUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF DEEPER CONVECTION. FARTHER WEST...CONDITIONS ARE SETTLING DOWN FOR PALAU AS A TROUGH EXITS TO THE WEST. STRONGER TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT BOTH YAP AND PALAU WITH THE ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMING LATE IN THE WEEK AS CONVECTION NEAR CHUUK PUSHES WESTWARD. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PMZ151>154. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.