From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Nov 30 13:14:58 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAU5Evo5015492 for ; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 13:14:58 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oATIkdsM000834; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:14:40 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4547584 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:14:40 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAU5EeTO018958 for ; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:14:40 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAU5EXdH028105 for ; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:14:39 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7C781144B0001; Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:14:33 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101130051433.7C781144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:14:33 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 088 FXPQ60 PGUM 300512 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 312 PM CHST TUE NOV 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE BUOY SHOWS SEAS FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 8 FEET. && .DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS...AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS HINTS AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH NO OBVIOUS MECHANISM OTHER THAN SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NOT BUYING INTO THAT FOR NOW. && .MARINE... SEAS HAVE REMAINED SAFELY BELOW 10 FEET ALL DAY...AND WINDS HAVE DECLINED SOMEWHAT SINCE THIS MORNING...SO TAKING DOWN SMALL CRAFT ADVY. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS CLOSE TO STEADY-STATE...WITH WINDS AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS NEAR 8 FT. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER MAJURO AND THE CENTRAL RMI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ALSO...DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NW OF CHUUK WAS TRIGGERING LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION FROM CHUUK TO POHNPEI. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR MAJURO AND POHNPEI TONIGHT...BUT MODELS INDICATE THE PATTERN FAVORING THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN IN THE COMING DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THIS WEEKEND. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS WAVES 6FT/12SEC ALONG THEIR NEAR-EAST SHORE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 9N146E IS CAUSING SHOWERS NEAR CHUUK. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT CHUUK WHILE A MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST. ACROSS FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA...ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. SOME INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP AT YAP AND ESPECIALLY AT KOROR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TUTT CELL DRIFTS WESTWARD...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.