Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:14:33 -0600

088 
FXPQ60 PGUM 300512
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
312 PM CHST TUE NOV 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS. THE BUOY SHOWS SEAS FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 8 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS...AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS
HINTS AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH
NO OBVIOUS MECHANISM OTHER THAN SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NOT
BUYING INTO THAT FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE REMAINED SAFELY BELOW 10 FEET ALL DAY...AND WINDS HAVE
DECLINED SOMEWHAT SINCE THIS MORNING...SO TAKING DOWN SMALL CRAFT
ADVY. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS CLOSE TO STEADY-STATE...WITH WINDS AT
15-20 KT AND SEAS NEAR 8 FT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER MAJURO AND THE CENTRAL RMI THIS 
MORNING HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT. ALSO...DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NW OF 
CHUUK WAS TRIGGERING LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION FROM CHUUK TO POHNPEI. 
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR MAJURO AND POHNPEI TONIGHT...BUT 
MODELS INDICATE THE PATTERN FAVORING THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY 
SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN IN THE COMING DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL 
DEVELOP AT TIMES BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU 
THIS WEEKEND. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS WAVES 6FT/12SEC ALONG THEIR 
NEAR-EAST SHORE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 9N146E IS CAUSING 
SHOWERS NEAR CHUUK. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT CHUUK WHILE 
A MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST. ACROSS FAR WESTERN 
MICRONESIA...ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 
SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. SOME INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP AT YAP AND ESPECIALLY AT KOROR IN THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS THE TUTT CELL DRIFTS WESTWARD...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WILL 
LIKELY PREVAIL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON

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