From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Dec 1 05:43:59 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAULhwfi006748 for ; Wed, 1 Dec 2010 05:43:58 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAUJM8P1000834; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 15:43:45 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4563168 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 15:43:45 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAULhjQo003265 for ; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 15:43:45 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAULhcV6024730 for ; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 15:43:45 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B51613FE0852; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 15:43:38 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101130214338.B51613FE0852@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2010 15:43:38 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 160 FXPQ60 PGUM 302143 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 743 AM CHST WED DEC 1 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON WEATHER OVER THE MARIANAS WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE MAINLY STAYING SOUTH OF 12.7N. THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING ALMOST STRAIGHT WEST SO SHOULD NOT GET ANY CLOSER TO GUAM WATERS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE MARIANAS FROM GUAM TO SAIPAN SHOULD IN FACT BE IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE THE AREA OF RISING MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THEREFORE THE INHERITED FORECAST OF PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOKED GREAT AND NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. BOTH GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES PROG A SHEAR LINE NEXT WEEK THAT STALLS OUT NEAR AGRIHAN. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN THE MARIANAS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPROUT NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER TRADE WINDS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY NEAR POHNPEI AND JUST WEST OF KOSRAE...SO HAVE ADDED SCATTERED FOR POHNPEI. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN BY TONIGHT. CONVECTION HAS PULSED DOWN ALONG A WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH NEAR MAJURO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER CLOUDS SHUFFLING EASTWARD WITH A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP EAST OF MAJURO AND ACROSS THE DATE LINE. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A BULLS-EYE OF CONVECTION OVER MAJURO TODAY WHILE GFS ENSEMBLE TAKES THE DRY PATH. BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS STEADILY SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG THE TROUGH THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AM LEANING ON THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR MAJURO...A FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED SHOULD CONVECTION QUICKLY FIRE UP ALONG THE TROUGH. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS SOUND SO LEFT IT PRETTY MUCH UNTOUCHED. CONVECTION HAS RELOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CHUUK THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT MODELS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AIDED BY THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR YAP AND PALAU FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT MODELS DO INDICATE INCREASING LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BY FRIDAY AS THE TUTT MOVES WESTWARD. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.