Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:02:58 -0600

658 
FXPQ60 PGUM 010502
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
302 PM CHST WED DEC 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE
MARIANAS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO LOOK FORWARD TO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS UPSTREAM AS A DRY SEASON
PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOTHING OBVIOUS IN THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS TO BASE THAT ON. THUS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE AND ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATE A SHEAR LINE HAS DEVELOPED 
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 9N180 TO 6N151E. THE SHEAR LINE IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR 20N179W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS HELPING TO 
TRIGGER LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SHEAR LINE WEST OF 164E 
FROM NEAR KOSRAE ACROSS POHNPEI TO NEAR CHUUK...WHILE JUST SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 164E. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM 
FORECAST...LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. GFS INITIALIZES THIS PATTERN 
DECENTLY AND INDICATES THE SHEAR LINE WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH 
AND WEAKEN WITH TIME...THEN GFS INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS 
WAVES 4-5FT/9-11SEC AND DIRECTIONAL SPECTRUM INDICATES MIXED SEAS OF 
MORE THAN ONE WAVE DIRECTION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT WINDS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THIS 
AREA. UPPER LOW/TUTT CELL NEAR 10N137E IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST...AND TRAILING SHEAR LINE ACROSS POHNPEI 
AND CHUUK IS ALSO CAUSING LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION. A FEW CHANGES 
WERE MADE TO BOTH NEAR TERM AND LONGER TERM. THE TUTT CELL SHOULD 
CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR YAP AND POSSIBLY KOROR 
DURING NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND SHOWERS NEAR CHUUK SHOULD GRADUALLY 
TAPER OFF AS THE SHEAR LINE WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS AND ISOL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.