From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Dec 1 13:03:16 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB153E8x032740 for ; Wed, 1 Dec 2010 13:03:15 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAUJM8s0000834; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:03:05 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4568551 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:03:05 -0600 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB1534mU005942 for ; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:03:04 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB152wTQ026737 for ; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:03:04 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 58C163FE087F; Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:02:58 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101201050258.58C163FE087F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:02:58 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 658 FXPQ60 PGUM 010502 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 302 PM CHST WED DEC 1 2010 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE MARIANAS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO LOOK FORWARD TO FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS UPSTREAM AS A DRY SEASON PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOTHING OBVIOUS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO BASE THAT ON. THUS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE AND ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATE A SHEAR LINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM 9N180 TO 6N151E. THE SHEAR LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR 20N179W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS HELPING TO TRIGGER LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SHEAR LINE WEST OF 164E FROM NEAR KOSRAE ACROSS POHNPEI TO NEAR CHUUK...WHILE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 164E. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. GFS INITIALIZES THIS PATTERN DECENTLY AND INDICATES THE SHEAR LINE WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH AND WEAKEN WITH TIME...THEN GFS INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS WAVES 4-5FT/9-11SEC AND DIRECTIONAL SPECTRUM INDICATES MIXED SEAS OF MORE THAN ONE WAVE DIRECTION. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... ASCAT WINDS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA. UPPER LOW/TUTT CELL NEAR 10N137E IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST...AND TRAILING SHEAR LINE ACROSS POHNPEI AND CHUUK IS ALSO CAUSING LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION. A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO BOTH NEAR TERM AND LONGER TERM. THE TUTT CELL SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR YAP AND POSSIBLY KOROR DURING NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND SHOWERS NEAR CHUUK SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THE SHEAR LINE WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.