Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 1 Dec 2010 15:18:18 -0600

357 
FXPQ60 PGUM 012118
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
718 AM CHST THU DEC 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. SATELLITE
SHOWS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
AS MORE MOVE IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DRY WEATHER LOOKS SET TO CONTINUE FOR A BIT LONGER. GFS40
AND ECMWF-HIRES GIVE ONLY ABOUT AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE NEXT 10
DAYS. IN FACT...THE ECMWF-HIRES ONLY GAVE ABOUT 3 QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. WHILE THESE EXACT TOTALS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...IT IS
EVIDENCE THAT OVER ALL THE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. INHERITED GRIDS REFLECTED
THIS QUITE WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER 
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER MICRONESIA...MAINLY SOUTH OF POHNPEI. 
RECENT SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY 
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF POHNPEI TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO 
FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AN UPPER LOW PASSING OVER THE PALAU REGION WILL AID IN SOME SHOWER 
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KOROR...BUT IS EXPECTED REMAIN ISOLATED AS 
MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE EVIDENCED IN THE LATEST YAP SOUNDING 
MOVES FARTHER WEST. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A 
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SO KEPT THIS THREAT IN FOR TODAY 
AT KOROR. MODELS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SOUTH OF POHNPEI WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CHUUK AS IT PROGRESSES
WESTWARD. SIMILAR FAIR CONDITIONS AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER CHUUK BY FRIDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.