From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Dec 2 05:18:44 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB1LIgED029725 for ; Thu, 2 Dec 2010 05:18:43 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAUNMm7S007882; Wed, 1 Dec 2010 15:18:25 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4581653 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 1 Dec 2010 15:18:25 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB1LIOw1000501 for ; Wed, 1 Dec 2010 15:18:24 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB1LIIS6007655 for ; Wed, 1 Dec 2010 15:18:24 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 72B22144B0001; Wed, 1 Dec 2010 15:18:18 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101201211818.72B22144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 1 Dec 2010 15:18:18 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 357 FXPQ60 PGUM 012118 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 718 AM CHST THU DEC 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AS MORE MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. && .DISCUSSION... RATHER DRY WEATHER LOOKS SET TO CONTINUE FOR A BIT LONGER. GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES GIVE ONLY ABOUT AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IN FACT...THE ECMWF-HIRES ONLY GAVE ABOUT 3 QUARTERS OF AN INCH. WHILE THESE EXACT TOTALS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...IT IS EVIDENCE THAT OVER ALL THE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. INHERITED GRIDS REFLECTED THIS QUITE WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER MICRONESIA...MAINLY SOUTH OF POHNPEI. RECENT SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF POHNPEI TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... AN UPPER LOW PASSING OVER THE PALAU REGION WILL AID IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KOROR...BUT IS EXPECTED REMAIN ISOLATED AS MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE EVIDENCED IN THE LATEST YAP SOUNDING MOVES FARTHER WEST. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SO KEPT THIS THREAT IN FOR TODAY AT KOROR. MODELS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SOUTH OF POHNPEI WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CHUUK AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD. SIMILAR FAIR CONDITIONS AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER CHUUK BY FRIDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.