Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 1 Dec 2010 23:51:32 -0600

208 
FXPQ60 PGUM 020551
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
351 PM CHST THU DEC 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS.
SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
EASTWARD TO PAST 170E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER LOOKS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. INHERITED GRIDS REFLECTED
THIS SO ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKING WAS NECESSARY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WITH DEEP CONVECTION JUST SW OF POHNPEI IS 
DRIFTING TOWARD W-SW. A WEAK SHEAR LINE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT 
SHOWERS WIGGLES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 9N180 TO 7N170E TO NEAR 8N160E. 
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 20N178E IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. MODELS INDICATE 
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LIGHT 
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THRU THE LONGER TERM. 
MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS NE WAVES 5FT/11SEC.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION FROM JUST SW OF POHNPEI TO JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK IS 
MOVING SLOWLY W-SW AND COULD AFFECT CHUUK MARINE ZONE OVERNIGHT AND 
FRIDAY. A PATTERN OF WEAK L-L CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
PERSISTS OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED 
AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK WILL 
GRADUALLY MOVE W-SW AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS NEAR PALAU LATE FRIDAY 
OR SAT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED 
FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/SIMPSON

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