From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Dec 3 05:41:07 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB2Lf6Mb028905 for ; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 05:41:07 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB2Dwu0M000834; Thu, 2 Dec 2010 15:40:55 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4599445 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 2 Dec 2010 15:40:55 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB2LetEC019416 for ; Thu, 2 Dec 2010 15:40:55 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB2Lemnc015036 for ; Thu, 2 Dec 2010 15:40:55 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id CA6983FE0863; Thu, 2 Dec 2010 15:40:48 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101202214048.CA6983FE0863@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 2 Dec 2010 15:40:48 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 592 FXPQ60 PGUM 022140 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 740 AM CHST FRI DEC 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... BOTH ASCAT AND WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATE VERY DRY FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM THE MARIANAS EASTWARD TO WAKE ISLAND. && .DISCUSSION... THIS DRY-SEASON PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MARIANAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RISE TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE. && .MARINE... A TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL CREATE FREQUENT STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE MARIANAS WATERS TODAY...CAUSING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AND WILL LAST INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WW3 SHOWS MODEST NORTHEAST SWELL AT POHNPEI CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF KOROR. MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KOROR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST OF KOROR BY SUNDAY. FOR CHUUK AND YAP... TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PMZ151>154. && $$ CHAN/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.