Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 Dec 2010 15:40:48 -0600

592 
FXPQ60 PGUM 022140
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
740 AM CHST FRI DEC 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
BOTH ASCAT AND WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATE VERY DRY FRESH TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM THE MARIANAS EASTWARD TO WAKE ISLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS DRY-SEASON PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MARIANAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RISE TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT MIGHT NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL CREATE FREQUENT STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
THE MARIANAS WATERS TODAY...CAUSING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED AND WILL LAST INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEA
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WW3 SHOWS MODEST
NORTHEAST SWELL AT POHNPEI CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR. MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF KOROR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST OF KOROR BY SUNDAY. FOR CHUUK AND YAP...
TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON 
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

CHAN/WILLIAMS

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