From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Dec 3 15:37:55 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB37brp3009340 for ; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 15:37:54 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB2N6CTd000834; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 01:37:39 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4605291 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 01:37:39 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB37bdTd025428 for ; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 01:37:39 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB37bWmD026117 for ; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 01:37:38 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9CC6E3FE0856; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 01:37:32 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101203073732.9CC6E3FE0856@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 3 Dec 2010 01:37:32 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 624 FXPQ60 PGUM 030737 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 537 PM CHST FRI DEC 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS NEAR THE MARIANAS...WITH THE LATEST BATCH NOW MOVING OFF TO THE WEST OF GUAM. OUT TO THE EAST...A SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT IS PRODUCING TRADE SHOWERS NORTH OF A LINE FROM 15N147E TO 14N149E TO 13N161E. && .DISCUSSION... UKMET/ECMWF BOTH SHOW VERY LITTLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS OTHER THAN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. GFS IS SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH...SHOWING BRIEF FLARE-UPS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WILL HOLD THE LINE AT ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH ON THE SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT LURKING TO THE EAST. AFTER BREEZINESS OF TODAY...WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... WITH WINDS DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT ON ALL FOUR ISLANDS...HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND/OR A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA IN THE VICINITY OF POHNPEI AND MAJURO ABOUT TUESDAY. MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS MODEST NORTHEAST SWELL ON POHNPEI CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... AREAS OF INTENSE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 2N AND 11N FROM 130E TO 145E. THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TRADE- WIND DISTURBANCE. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END OVER YAP BY MIDNIGHT...AND OVER KOROR BY DAWN TOMORROW. LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE NOW GIVING DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS FOR THESE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AFTER SATURDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY KEPT FORECASTS NEARLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. AFTER TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KOROR. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTH OF KOROR. THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...UKMET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A RENEWAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER KOROR ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF GUAM APPROACHES. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE...SHOWER COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR KOROR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LIONS SHARE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THIS SAME SYSTEM TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF YAP...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR YAP ALSO. FOR CHUUK...A TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.