Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Dec 2010 01:37:32 -0600

624 
FXPQ60 PGUM 030737
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
537 PM CHST FRI DEC 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS NEAR THE
MARIANAS...WITH THE LATEST BATCH NOW MOVING OFF TO THE WEST OF
GUAM. OUT TO THE EAST...A SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT IS PRODUCING TRADE
SHOWERS NORTH OF A LINE FROM 15N147E TO 14N149E TO 13N161E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UKMET/ECMWF BOTH SHOW VERY LITTLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS OTHER THAN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. GFS IS SOMEWHAT
MORE BULLISH...SHOWING BRIEF FLARE-UPS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SHEAR
LINE FRAGMENT OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL HOLD THE LINE AT ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP WATCH ON THE SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT LURKING TO THE EAST. AFTER
BREEZINESS OF TODAY...WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO 15 TO 20 MPH OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT ON ALL FOUR ISLANDS...HAVE
CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND/OR A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA IN THE VICINITY OF POHNPEI AND MAJURO ABOUT TUESDAY.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS MODEST NORTHEAST
SWELL ON POHNPEI CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF SHOULD
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AREAS OF INTENSE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 2N AND 11N FROM
130E TO 145E. THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END OVER YAP BY MIDNIGHT...AND OVER
KOROR BY DAWN TOMORROW. LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE NOW GIVING
DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS FOR THESE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AFTER
SATURDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY KEPT FORECASTS NEARLY THE SAME AS
BEFORE. AFTER TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KOROR. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTH OF KOROR. THE
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...UKMET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A RENEWAL OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER KOROR ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF GUAM
APPROACHES. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE...SHOWER COVERAGE MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR KOROR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LIONS SHARE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THIS SAME SYSTEM TO PASS TO THE SOUTH
OF YAP...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR YAP ALSO. FOR
CHUUK...A TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.