From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Dec 4 04:19:01 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB3KIxFG027232 for ; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 04:19:00 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB3Id2Ic000834; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 14:18:46 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4613578 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 14:18:46 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB3KIkpB021566 for ; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 14:18:46 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB3KIdXO023835 for ; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 14:18:45 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A3EFB3FE085F; Fri, 3 Dec 2010 14:18:39 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101203201839.A3EFB3FE085F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 3 Dec 2010 14:18:39 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 491 FXPQ60 PGUM 032018 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 618 AM CHST SAT DEC 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT NEAR 25N ARE ENHANCING A FEW SHEAR LINE FRAGMENTS FROM THE MARIANAS EASTWARD TO WAKE ISLAND. ONE OF THESE FEATURES HAS TRIGGERED SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRAGMENT TO BE NEAR 150E. BASED ON ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT...IT WILL BE OVER THE MARIANAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. WITH DRYNESS PERSISTING AT MID-LEVELS...NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WILL COUPLE WITH SURFACE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HIGH-END ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...HAVE INTRODUCED MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED POPS A BIT. MORE SHEAR LINE FRAGMENTS FARTHER UPSTREAM COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR SCENARIO NEXT WEEK BUT DECIDED TO DEAL WITH ONE AT A TIME. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED BY A COMBINATION OF TRADE WINDS AND NEAR-GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COMBINED SEA OF 7 TO 8 FEET INTO MIDWEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A STRENGTHENING TRADE WIND INVERSION EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDING DATA ACROSS MICRONESIA AS WELL AS SUBSIDENT FLOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES BY TUESDAY FOR ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SIMILAR CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL PERSIST OVER CHUUK AS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN APPARENT STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION VISIBLE IN THE 12Z YAP SOUNDING AND LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE THE TRADE INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA TODAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF YAP MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO YAP OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD...IT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOROR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ CHAN/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.