Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Dec 2010 14:18:39 -0600

491 
FXPQ60 PGUM 032018
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
618 AM CHST SAT DEC 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT NEAR 25N ARE
ENHANCING A FEW SHEAR LINE FRAGMENTS FROM THE MARIANAS EASTWARD TO
WAKE ISLAND. ONE OF THESE FEATURES HAS TRIGGERED SOME PASSING
SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE NEXT FRAGMENT TO BE NEAR 150E. BASED ON ITS WESTWARD
MOVEMENT...IT WILL BE OVER THE MARIANAS BY LATE THIS EVENING.
WITH DRYNESS PERSISTING AT MID-LEVELS...NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY
WILL COUPLE WITH SURFACE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HIGH-END
ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...HAVE
INTRODUCED MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED POPS A BIT. MORE SHEAR LINE
FRAGMENTS FARTHER UPSTREAM COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR SCENARIO NEXT
WEEK BUT DECIDED TO DEAL WITH ONE AT A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED BY A COMBINATION OF TRADE WINDS AND
NEAR-GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF
WAKE ISLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COMBINED SEA OF 7 TO 8 FEET INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A STRENGTHENING TRADE WIND INVERSION EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDING DATA
ACROSS MICRONESIA AS WELL AS SUBSIDENT FLOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES BY TUESDAY FOR
ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL PERSIST
OVER CHUUK AS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AN APPARENT STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION VISIBLE IN THE
12Z YAP SOUNDING AND LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE THE TRADE INVERSION
WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF
YAP MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO YAP OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD...IT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOROR EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/WILLIAMS

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