From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Dec 4 15:33:03 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB47X171009437 for ; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 15:33:02 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB3KrSXe024836; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 01:32:42 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4619990 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 01:32:42 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB47Wf8k001704 for ; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 01:32:41 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB47WZMd026537 for ; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 01:32:41 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3F90C3FE0856; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 01:32:35 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101204073235.3F90C3FE0856@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 4 Dec 2010 01:32:35 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 339 FXPQ60 PGUM 040732 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 532 PM CHST SAT DEC 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DIFFUSE SHEAR-LINE FRAGMENT JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS APPEARS POISED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. && .DISCUSSION... GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AROUND THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT FROM THE SHEAR LINE. SO HAVE STAYED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...AN UNEVENTFUL WEEK IN STORE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE MODELS...A STRENGTHENING TRADE WIND INVERSION IN THE SOUNDING DATA...AND SUBSIDENT FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES BY TUESDAY FOR ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL PERSIST OVER CHUUK INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. OPTED TO CHANGE THE KOROR FORECAST TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BECAUSE THE GFS...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE KOROR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE THE 00Z KOROR SOUNDING INDICATES VERY MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGH 800 MB...BECAUSE KOROR HAD 0.91 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 06Z SIX HOURLY OBSERVATION...AND BECAUSE KOROR IS UNDER A THICK CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF YAP MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO YAP OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD IT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOROR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT YAP SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.