Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 4 Dec 2010 01:32:35 -0600

339 
FXPQ60 PGUM 040732
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
532 PM CHST SAT DEC 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A DIFFUSE SHEAR-LINE FRAGMENT JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS APPEARS
POISED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AROUND THE MARIANAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATE LITTLE OR NO
EFFECT FROM THE SHEAR LINE. SO HAVE STAYED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...AN UNEVENTFUL
WEEK IN STORE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MODELS...A STRENGTHENING TRADE WIND INVERSION IN THE SOUNDING
DATA...AND SUBSIDENT FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS DRY
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES BY TUESDAY FOR ALL FORECAST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL PERSIST OVER CHUUK
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. OPTED TO CHANGE THE KOROR FORECAST TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BECAUSE THE GFS...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE KOROR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY...BECAUSE THE 00Z KOROR SOUNDING INDICATES VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS THROUGH 800 MB...BECAUSE KOROR HAD 0.91 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE 06Z SIX HOURLY OBSERVATION...AND BECAUSE KOROR IS UNDER A
THICK CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF YAP MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO YAP
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS TO THE
SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD IT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOROR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT YAP SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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