From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Dec 5 05:05:58 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB4L5vTG028604 for ; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 05:05:58 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB4J3q5O024836; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 15:05:43 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4627643 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 15:05:42 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB4L5g28023558 for ; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 15:05:42 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB4L5Zme008517 for ; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 15:05:42 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id CBB71144B0001; Sat, 4 Dec 2010 15:05:35 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101204210535.CBB71144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 4 Dec 2010 15:05:35 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 648 FXPQ60 PGUM 042105 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 705 AM CHST SUN DEC 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AN OLD SHEAR LINE CURVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTH OF GUAM TO SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND. A TUTT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE ALONG 10N TO NEAR 130E. UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PREVAILS OVER MICRONESIA TO THE NORTH OF 10N. && .DISCUSSION... ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE TO REFRESH THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CALL FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHEAR LINE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...UKMET AND GFS BOTH CALL FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO CRACK BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. ECMWF IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. IF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONVERGE TOWARD THIS SCENARIO...CLOUD COVER AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED OVER ALL OR PART OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A NORTHEAST SWELL COULD BRING SURF ON RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...BUT THE FETCH GENERATION AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED TOO FAR AWAY FROM FORECAST DOMAIN. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF GALES FROM THE NORTHEAST EAST OF WAKE ISLAND AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER MAJURO TODAY...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS A GENERAL DRY SEASON PATTERN CONTINUES. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AS WELL. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK BUT SPECIFIC AREAS OF INCREASED CONVECTION ARE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR CHUUK AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CLOUD COVER BY MIDWEEK. A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU WILL BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY OVER KOROR. MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT TROUGHING SOUTHWEST OF KOROR WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO. MODELS DO AGREE IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH OF YAP THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.