Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 Dec 2010 02:04:49 -0600

115 
FXPQ60 PGUM 050804
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
604 PM CHST SUN DEC 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEAK SHEAR LINE STRETCHING EAST-WEST JUST SOUTH OF GUAM HAS
EVEN WEAKER CONNECTIONS TODAY TO THE SHEAR LINE FARTHER NE TOWARD
WAKE ISLAND. ANOTHER NEARLY-STATIONARY SHEAR LINE IS NORTH OF OUR
AREA BETWEEN 20N AND 25N. RADAR AND SAT SHOW VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY CLOUDS UPSTREAM FROM THE MARIANAS AND THESE
WERE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FORECAST AND THE INHERITED GRIDS. THE WEAK
SHEAR LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD FOR A WHILE
YET...AND GFS AGAIN SHOWS A MARGINAL INCREASE OF MOISTURE OVER
GUAM LATE TUE AND OVER SAIPAN LATE WED. BUT ON THE WHOLE...ANY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS
WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN BUOY HAS BEEN SHOWING COMBINED SEAS 6-7 FT AT 9-11 SEC THIS
AFTN AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO PREV WW3 GUIDANCE ARE INDICATED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR REGIME OVER BOTH CHUUK
AND POHNPEI THRU MONDAY NIGHT...AND FOR KOSRAE THRU THIS EVENING.
SKIES ABOVE MAJURO ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATER
THIS EVENING AS A TRADE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE
WILL ARRIVE AT KOSRAE TOWARD DAWN WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...AND
EVENTUALLY AFFECT POHNPEI AND CHUUK ON TUESDAY. LATEST ASCAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FRESH TRADE SURGE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DATE LINE AND INTO EASTERN
MICRONESIA AROUND MIDWEEK... HEIGHTENING TRADE CONVERGENCE MIGHT
COMBINE WITH DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT TO CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM EAST TO WEST. BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE SURGE ARE GOING TO ENGENDER HIGHER SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO THE
MARSHALLS BY WEDNESDAY...AND COULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY FOR
KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARIANAS IS
GOING TO BRING NICE WEATHER FOR YAP THRU TUESDAY. FOR
KOROR...SURFACE CONVERGENCE EAST OF A PERSISTING TROUGH NEAR
MINDANAO WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
NEARBY TO FIRE UP PERIODIC CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY
MIDWEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE MARIANAS MIGHT
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE EQUATOR
AND NORTHWARD OVER BOTH YAP AND PALAU. THIS SCENARIO COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/CHAN

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