From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Dec 5 16:05:17 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB585GTW010103 for ; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 16:05:17 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB42n7vv017012; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 02:04:57 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4632606 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 02:04:57 -0600 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB584uZS024470 for ; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 02:04:56 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB584oYZ006667 for ; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 02:04:56 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id AD45C3FE0857; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 02:04:49 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101205080449.AD45C3FE0857@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 5 Dec 2010 02:04:49 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 115 FXPQ60 PGUM 050804 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 604 PM CHST SUN DEC 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE WEAK SHEAR LINE STRETCHING EAST-WEST JUST SOUTH OF GUAM HAS EVEN WEAKER CONNECTIONS TODAY TO THE SHEAR LINE FARTHER NE TOWARD WAKE ISLAND. ANOTHER NEARLY-STATIONARY SHEAR LINE IS NORTH OF OUR AREA BETWEEN 20N AND 25N. RADAR AND SAT SHOW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY CLOUDS UPSTREAM FROM THE MARIANAS AND THESE WERE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FORECAST AND THE INHERITED GRIDS. THE WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD FOR A WHILE YET...AND GFS AGAIN SHOWS A MARGINAL INCREASE OF MOISTURE OVER GUAM LATE TUE AND OVER SAIPAN LATE WED. BUT ON THE WHOLE...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. && .MARINE... IPAN BUOY HAS BEEN SHOWING COMBINED SEAS 6-7 FT AT 9-11 SEC THIS AFTN AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO PREV WW3 GUIDANCE ARE INDICATED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DRY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR REGIME OVER BOTH CHUUK AND POHNPEI THRU MONDAY NIGHT...AND FOR KOSRAE THRU THIS EVENING. SKIES ABOVE MAJURO ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS EVENING AS A TRADE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE AT KOSRAE TOWARD DAWN WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT POHNPEI AND CHUUK ON TUESDAY. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FRESH TRADE SURGE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DATE LINE AND INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA AROUND MIDWEEK... HEIGHTENING TRADE CONVERGENCE MIGHT COMBINE WITH DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT TO CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST. BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE SURGE ARE GOING TO ENGENDER HIGHER SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALLS BY WEDNESDAY...AND COULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY FOR KOSRAE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARIANAS IS GOING TO BRING NICE WEATHER FOR YAP THRU TUESDAY. FOR KOROR...SURFACE CONVERGENCE EAST OF A PERSISTING TROUGH NEAR MINDANAO WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY TO FIRE UP PERIODIC CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE MARIANAS MIGHT EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND NORTHWARD OVER BOTH YAP AND PALAU. THIS SCENARIO COULD GREATLY ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ SIMPSON/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.