Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 Dec 2010 15:04:22 -0600

999
FXPQ60 PGUM 052101
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
701 AM CHST MON DEC 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OLD SHEAR LINE TRAILS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FORECAST
ZONES TO NORTH OF POHNPEI NEAR 10N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID EDIT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE...THE GFS INITIALIZES THE SHEAR LINE THE BEST. SAID
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY CLOUDINESS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHEAR LINE LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. GFS GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST ZONES UNTIL THE SHEAR LINE
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO SPLIT
THE FORECAST ZONES TO REFINE THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST AS MESOSCALE
FEATURES OF THE SHEAR LINE BECOME EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS FETCH GENERATION REGION FOR
ARRIVING NE SWELL TO BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF WAKE
ISLAND. ACCORDINGLY...DO NOT EXPECT SAID SWELL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO GENERATE HIGH SURF ON RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE RIP RISK LEVEL SURF IS STILL EXPECTED
ON NORTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
POHNPEI TO MAJURO. IRONICALLY...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRESENT
OVER KWAJALEIN MUCH OF THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES OVER. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER KOSRAE WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES POHNPEI TODAY. PLEASANT WEATHER
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
ARRIVES FROM THE EAST OVER MAJURO. CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD TOWARD POHNPEI BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER POHNPEI IS EXPECTED BUT SCATTERED COVERAGE APPEARS
UNLIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WAVE WATCH MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN SEAS BY WEDNESDAY THAT COULD PROMPT A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS HOVERING SOUTH OF CHUUK THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD...BRINGING CLOUDS TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE AS A TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI MOVES WEST. SUNNY CONDITIONS
AND DRY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER YAP. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BREW SOUTHWEST OF YAP AND ACROSS THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU. MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS UNSTABLE PATTERN
ACROSS PALAU FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SLOWLY BUILDING IN ACROSS
YAP.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT

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