From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Dec 6 05:04:42 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB5L4fis030806 for ; Mon, 6 Dec 2010 05:04:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB5EhOBe024836; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 15:04:29 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4640550 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 15:04:29 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB5L4Tn9015796 for ; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 15:04:29 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB5L4MAN021987 for ; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 15:04:28 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7CBB73FE0856; Sun, 5 Dec 2010 15:04:22 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101205210422.7CBB73FE0856@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 5 Dec 2010 15:04:22 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 999 FXPQ60 PGUM 052101 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 701 AM CHST MON DEC 6 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AN OLD SHEAR LINE TRAILS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FORECAST ZONES TO NORTH OF POHNPEI NEAR 10N. && .DISCUSSION... ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID EDIT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...THE GFS INITIALIZES THE SHEAR LINE THE BEST. SAID GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY CLOUDINESS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHEAR LINE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. GFS GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST ZONES UNTIL THE SHEAR LINE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO SPLIT THE FORECAST ZONES TO REFINE THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST AS MESOSCALE FEATURES OF THE SHEAR LINE BECOME EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. && .MARINE... LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS FETCH GENERATION REGION FOR ARRIVING NE SWELL TO BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ACCORDINGLY...DO NOT EXPECT SAID SWELL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH SURF ON RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE RIP RISK LEVEL SURF IS STILL EXPECTED ON NORTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM POHNPEI TO MAJURO. IRONICALLY...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRESENT OVER KWAJALEIN MUCH OF THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER KOSRAE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES POHNPEI TODAY. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE EAST OVER MAJURO. CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARD POHNPEI BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE OVER POHNPEI IS EXPECTED BUT SCATTERED COVERAGE APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WAVE WATCH MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SEAS BY WEDNESDAY THAT COULD PROMPT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR KOSRAE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS HOVERING SOUTH OF CHUUK THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...BRINGING CLOUDS TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS A TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI MOVES WEST. SUNNY CONDITIONS AND DRY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER YAP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BREW SOUTHWEST OF YAP AND ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS UNSTABLE PATTERN ACROSS PALAU FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SLOWLY BUILDING IN ACROSS YAP. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.