From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Dec 6 15:11:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB67BS1w005535 for ; Mon, 6 Dec 2010 15:11:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB660pdL011706; Mon, 6 Dec 2010 01:11:08 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4646548 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 6 Dec 2010 01:11:07 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB67B7Os017914 for ; Mon, 6 Dec 2010 01:11:07 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB67B0Gk008925 for ; Mon, 6 Dec 2010 01:11:07 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6911C3FE0854; Mon, 6 Dec 2010 01:11:00 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101206071100.6911C3FE0854@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 6 Dec 2010 01:11:00 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 524 FXPQ60 PGUM 060710 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 510 PM CHST MON DEC 6 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING SHEAR LINE SHIFTED NORTHWARD JUST FAR ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS TO GUAM AND ROTA THAN ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH. LATEST UPPER- AIR SOUNDING INDICATES VERY DRY MID AND UPPER-LEVELS WITH WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE DRY REGION BETWEEN 8N AND 20N FROM THE MARIANAS TO THE DATE LINE. && .DISCUSSION... ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR LINE DID DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS DID NOT QUITE DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY NARROW E-W BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MEANDER NEAR GUAM THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE GFSE...UKMET AND ECMWF TAKE THE DRY ROAD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE MARIANAS. DECIDED TO LIMIT THE DIFFERENCE IN WEATHER BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO THAT OF CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT...WITH FEWER CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BY LATE TOMORROW AND FURTHER SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS 8 TO 12 FT SEAS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS AND NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND AND SLOWLY EXPANDING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD. WAVEWATCH MODELS INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE REGION OF LARGE SWELL AND EXPANSION...BUT STOP SHORT OF BRINGING LARGE NE SWELL TO THE MARIANAS...SO AT THE MOMENT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK TROUGH IN THE TRADE WINDS JUST WEST OF KWAJALEIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TODAY LEAVING ALL THREE LOCATIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A PRETTY DRY TROPOSPHERE BETWEEN YAP AND THE DATELINE AND NORTH OF 10N LATITUDE AND SO THIS SEEMS TO FIT IN WITH ALL NWPS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WAVE WATCH3 MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BUT A CALCULATION OF SURF SHOWS THAT ALL AREAS...INCLUDING KOSRAE... SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WEATHER FOR YAP AND CHUUK DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOLLOWS ALONG THE ABOVE SCENARIO FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF CHUUK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT TO CHUUK EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS FOR YAP ALSO LOOK PRETTY DRY...LEAVING ONLY PALAU WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE TRADE-WIND TROUGH THAT EXTENDS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS PALAU WITHIN THIS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT THE MOST RECENT NWP MODEL RUNS KEEP THE WEATHER SOUTH OF YAP. WW3 SHOWS SEAS REMAINING AT 5 TO 6 FT FOR YAP AND PALAU WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AFFECTING CHUUK BY MID WEEK...BUT STILL WELL BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ W. AYDLETT/EDSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.