Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 00:42:20 -0600

550 
FXPQ60 PGUM 070642
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
442 PM CHST TUE DEC 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW REMNANTS OF AN OLD SHEAR LINE
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH NOT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER..GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
UNORGANIZED E-W LINE OF CLOUDINESS COULD REACH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR GUAM. ADHERING TO GFS
GUIDANCE...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
THU BUT ONLY GFS TAKES THIS SLANT. UKMET AND ECMWF TAKE THE DRY
ROAD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE MARIANAS. OTW GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER THRU WEEKS END.

&&

.MARINE...
NE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THRU THU MAINTAINING MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NW
SWELL ARRIVING ON WEEKEND WILL ADD TO SURF HEIGHTS AND INCREASE
SURF ON WEST FACING REEFS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF MAJURO
DISSIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY LEAVING THE ONLY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE REGION BETWEEN KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. WINDSAT DATA
SHOWS STRONGER SE WINDS TRAILING A WEAK TROUGH NW OF KOSRAE. THE
TROUGH BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOSRAE TODAY AND SIMILAR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT POHNPEI LATER THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT LATER WED MORNING. BY LATE WEEK...ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS HAVE FURTHER CONSOLIDATED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF
YAP AND PALAU. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A
WETTER PATTERN LATER TONIGHT AND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE
WEST. MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FIRST TO PALAU WED NIGHT
WITH A GENERAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SHOWER COVERAGE TO YAP BY
THU. HOWEVER...TIMING MAY NEED TO BE SPED UP IF CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH DEVELOPS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. DECIDED TO
KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED AT YAP JUST THU AND THU NIGHT SINCE MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS YAP JUST WITHIN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS.
GFS HINTS AT A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU WED WHICH MAY HELP FOCUS CONVECTION IN THE
GENERAL AREA...INCLUDING PALAU. FOR NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT DRIER...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW SOON THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

FOR CHUUK...SHOWERS FROM THE MORNING HAVE EXITED TO THE WEST
ALONG WITH THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING POHNPEI WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER BEGINNING WED BUT A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MILLER/W. AYDLETT

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