From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Dec 7 14:42:50 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB76gnrb008607 for ; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 14:42:50 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB6IOJoc014075; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 00:42:32 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4664965 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 00:42:30 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB76gSeJ007851 for ; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 00:42:28 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB76gK0m021215 for ; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 00:42:28 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 1ADFE3FE0854; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 00:42:20 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101207064220.1ADFE3FE0854@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 00:42:20 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 550 FXPQ60 PGUM 070642 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 442 PM CHST TUE DEC 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW REMNANTS OF AN OLD SHEAR LINE LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. && .DISCUSSION... ALTHOUGH NOT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER..GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS UNORGANIZED E-W LINE OF CLOUDINESS COULD REACH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR GUAM. ADHERING TO GFS GUIDANCE...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THU BUT ONLY GFS TAKES THIS SLANT. UKMET AND ECMWF TAKE THE DRY ROAD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE MARIANAS. OTW GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THRU WEEKS END. && .MARINE... NE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THRU THU MAINTAINING MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NW SWELL ARRIVING ON WEEKEND WILL ADD TO SURF HEIGHTS AND INCREASE SURF ON WEST FACING REEFS DURING THE WEEKEND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF MAJURO DISSIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY LEAVING THE ONLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE REGION BETWEEN KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. WINDSAT DATA SHOWS STRONGER SE WINDS TRAILING A WEAK TROUGH NW OF KOSRAE. THE TROUGH BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOSRAE TODAY AND SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT POHNPEI LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT LATER WED MORNING. BY LATE WEEK...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS HAVE FURTHER CONSOLIDATED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF YAP AND PALAU. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A WETTER PATTERN LATER TONIGHT AND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE WEST. MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FIRST TO PALAU WED NIGHT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SHOWER COVERAGE TO YAP BY THU. HOWEVER...TIMING MAY NEED TO BE SPED UP IF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DEVELOPS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. DECIDED TO KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED AT YAP JUST THU AND THU NIGHT SINCE MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS YAP JUST WITHIN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS. GFS HINTS AT A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PALAU WED WHICH MAY HELP FOCUS CONVECTION IN THE GENERAL AREA...INCLUDING PALAU. FOR NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT DRIER...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW SOON THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. FOR CHUUK...SHOWERS FROM THE MORNING HAVE EXITED TO THE WEST ALONG WITH THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING POHNPEI WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER BEGINNING WED BUT A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MILLER/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.