Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 13:52:39 -0600

897 
FXPQ60 PGUM 071952
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
552 AM CHST WED DEC 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SHEAR LINE FRAGMENTS TO THE EAST AND WEST 
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN...LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. FORECAST ZONES 
SHOULD REMAIN IN BETWEEN AND STAY RELATIVELY DRY. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON POSSIBLE 
RAINFALL ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS 
CALLS FOR A SHEAR LINE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST DOMAIN 
NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN BUOY CAME IN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF BETWEEN 5 AND
6 FEET...SO INITIALIZED NORTHEAST SWELL A FOOT LOWER. STILL
EXPECT PREDOMINANT NE SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN WILL USHER IN
A NW SWELL BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURF HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVELS ON RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
EARLY MORNING ASCAT DATA SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
POHNPEI. MOST OF THE ATTENDANT SHOWERS ARE NOW WEST OF POHNPEI...
QUICKLY MOVING TOWARDS CHUUK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO
ISOLATED OVER POHNPEI TODAY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY SEASON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ON MAJURO AND KOSRAE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING
WESTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT VARIABILITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE PRECISE TIMING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TWO TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY TO CHUUK...AND TO KOROR AND YAP
RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF CHUUK TO NEAR POHNPEI...BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OVER YAP AND KOROR BY TOMORROW. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A THIRD
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTH OF GUAM. THIS THIRD TROUGH COULD
SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.
UNCERTAINTY RESTS WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF SHOWERS OVER
KOROR. GFS HALTS WESTWARD PROGRESS OF SHOWERS JUST EAST OF KOROR.
TUTT- INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OVER AND NORTHWEST OF KOROR WILL INHIBIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR KOROR. IF THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
RETREATS NORTHWARD...THEN THE DOOR WILL OPEN FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT

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