From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Dec 8 03:53:09 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB7Jr7ZI021860 for ; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 03:53:08 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB7EMxWK014075; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 13:52:48 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4672643 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 13:52:48 -0600 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB7JqlO5004969 for ; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 13:52:47 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB7JqfM5020412 for ; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 13:52:47 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 149BB3FE0857; Tue, 7 Dec 2010 13:52:39 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101207195241.149BB3FE0857@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 13:52:39 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 897 FXPQ60 PGUM 071952 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 552 AM CHST WED DEC 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SHEAR LINE FRAGMENTS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN...LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. FORECAST ZONES SHOULD REMAIN IN BETWEEN AND STAY RELATIVELY DRY. && .DISCUSSION... NO CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON POSSIBLE RAINFALL ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS CALLS FOR A SHEAR LINE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST DOMAIN NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... IPAN BUOY CAME IN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET...SO INITIALIZED NORTHEAST SWELL A FOOT LOWER. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINANT NE SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN WILL USHER IN A NW SWELL BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURF HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVELS ON RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES BY SATURDAY MORNING. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... EARLY MORNING ASCAT DATA SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR POHNPEI. MOST OF THE ATTENDANT SHOWERS ARE NOW WEST OF POHNPEI... QUICKLY MOVING TOWARDS CHUUK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED OVER POHNPEI TODAY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY SEASON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON MAJURO AND KOSRAE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT VARIABILITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE PRECISE TIMING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... TWO TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY TO CHUUK...AND TO KOROR AND YAP RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF CHUUK TO NEAR POHNPEI...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER YAP AND KOROR BY TOMORROW. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTH OF GUAM. THIS THIRD TROUGH COULD SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. UNCERTAINTY RESTS WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF SHOWERS OVER KOROR. GFS HALTS WESTWARD PROGRESS OF SHOWERS JUST EAST OF KOROR. TUTT- INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OVER AND NORTHWEST OF KOROR WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR KOROR. IF THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE RETREATS NORTHWARD...THEN THE DOOR WILL OPEN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.