Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 01:58:32 -0600

702 
FXPQ60 PGUM 080758
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
558 PM CHST WED DEC 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WITH THE MARIANAS SITUATED IN SOUTHEAST FLOW UNDER A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SHOWERS ARE AT A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
REGION. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE
TRIMMED BACK CLOUDINESS SOMEWHAT AND REDUCED SHOWERS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. MODELS LIFT RIDGE NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ALLOWING EAST WINDS TO RETURN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. BUT OVERALL...A DRY PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. 

&&

.MARINE...
WW3 BRINGS NW SWELL IN AT 2 FEET FRI...THEN QUICKLY UP TO 4 FEET
FRI NIGHT BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO 3 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SWELL IS THE PRODUCT OF A LARGE FETCH OF MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ABOUT 500 MILES NW OF THE
MARIANAS. THIS SWELL SHOULD BRING SURF UP TO 6 OR POSSIBLY 7 FEET
ON W-NW FACING REEFS FRI NIGHT...REMAINING AROUND 5-6 FEET FOR THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...RIP RISK SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SOME CLEARING OCCURRED AT POHNPEI EARLIER AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WEST OF POHNPEI AND AFFECTED 
CHUUK WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY-SEASON CONDITIONS ARE NOW AFFECTING ALL 
THREE FORECAST LOCATIONS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD IN FROM 
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURFACE 
TROUGH THAT IS NOW EAST OF MAJURO NEAR THE DATELINE. MODEL DATA 
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT VARIABILITY IN 
TIMING MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CERTAIN TIME FOR SCATTERED 
SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE 
TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROUGH NOW JUST EAST OF CHUUK WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO 
CHUUK AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION IS LOCATED AROUND CHUUK BUT SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES AND THE DIURNAL 
PEAK TIME FOR SHOWERS OCCURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO YAP 
AND KOROR FROM A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.  ON 
SATELLITE A THIRD TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND KOROR IS NOW 
CROSSING 140E AND COULD SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY FOR
BOTH LOCATIONS. UNCERTAINTY RESTS WITH THE APPROACH OF SHOWERS AT
KOROR AND YAP. GFS HALTS WESTWARD PROGRESS OF SHOWERS JUST EAST OF
KOROR...AND YAP MAY BE NORTH OF MOST OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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