From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Dec 8 15:58:59 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB87wwCr000982 for ; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 15:58:59 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB860f7L014075; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 01:58:39 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4678387 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 01:58:39 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB87wdOW020336 for ; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 01:58:39 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB87wWfb008737 for ; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 01:58:39 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D0FA73FE0854; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 01:58:32 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101208075832.D0FA73FE0854@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 01:58:32 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 702 FXPQ60 PGUM 080758 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 558 PM CHST WED DEC 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS...WITH THE MARIANAS SITUATED IN SOUTHEAST FLOW UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SHOWERS ARE AT A MINIMUM ACROSS THE REGION. && .DISCUSSION... RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK CLOUDINESS SOMEWHAT AND REDUCED SHOWERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. MODELS LIFT RIDGE NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING EAST WINDS TO RETURN ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. BUT OVERALL...A DRY PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. && .MARINE... WW3 BRINGS NW SWELL IN AT 2 FEET FRI...THEN QUICKLY UP TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO 3 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SWELL IS THE PRODUCT OF A LARGE FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ABOUT 500 MILES NW OF THE MARIANAS. THIS SWELL SHOULD BRING SURF UP TO 6 OR POSSIBLY 7 FEET ON W-NW FACING REEFS FRI NIGHT...REMAINING AROUND 5-6 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...RIP RISK SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SOME CLEARING OCCURRED AT POHNPEI EARLIER AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WEST OF POHNPEI AND AFFECTED CHUUK WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY-SEASON CONDITIONS ARE NOW AFFECTING ALL THREE FORECAST LOCATIONS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS NOW EAST OF MAJURO NEAR THE DATELINE. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT VARIABILITY IN TIMING MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CERTAIN TIME FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A TROUGH NOW JUST EAST OF CHUUK WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CHUUK AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION IS LOCATED AROUND CHUUK BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES AND THE DIURNAL PEAK TIME FOR SHOWERS OCCURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO YAP AND KOROR FROM A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON SATELLITE A THIRD TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND KOROR IS NOW CROSSING 140E AND COULD SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. UNCERTAINTY RESTS WITH THE APPROACH OF SHOWERS AT KOROR AND YAP. GFS HALTS WESTWARD PROGRESS OF SHOWERS JUST EAST OF KOROR...AND YAP MAY BE NORTH OF MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.