Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 14:13:40 -0600

826 
FXPQ60 PGUM 082013
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
613 AM CHST THU DEC 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MARIANAS REMAIN BENEATH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS CONFINED TO SOUTH OF
10N. WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES ARE LINED UP EAST OF THE
FORECAST ZONES NEAR 150E...155E AND 160E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A VERY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT IN RESUMPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENTLY NEAR
150E ARRIVES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY PASSING TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCES WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH QPF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AGREE WITH THIS AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE MARIANAS.

&&

.MARINE...
CDIP SERVER IS CURRENTLY DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE...SO HAVE HAD TO
RELY ON ALTIMETRY TO INITIALIZE TRADE-WIND SWELL. MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK LEVEL SURF IS EXPECTED ON NORTH AND EAST FACING
REEFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF ON WEST FACING
REEFS IS STILL EXPECTED TO RISE TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN ARRIVE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SHALLOW
ACTIVITY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 6N AND 10N ACROSS
THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN
TODAY AND THE WEEKEND...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS ZEROES IN ON A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE THAT WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
POHNPEI THIS WEEKEND. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF
KOSRAE AND WEST OF MAJURO...LEAVING BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS WITH
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF KOROR IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR YAP AND PALAU. GFS TIME-HEIGHT IS SHOWING
ABUNDANT LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER BOTH LOCATIONS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CALLS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER BOTH
LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUGGESTS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER BOTH LOCATIONS AS WELL TODAY.
IF THE CIRCULATION IS SLOW TO MOVE WEST...SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND OVER YAP AND KOROR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRADE-
WIND CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR CHUUK AND EASTWARD TO POHNPEI.
MODELS CLEAR THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS A TUTT
SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM 10N. ACCORDINGLY...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON CHUUK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/W. AYDLETT

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