From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Dec 9 04:14:03 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB8KE1m1003631 for ; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 04:14:02 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB860fjF014075; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 14:13:47 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4686994 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 14:13:47 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB8KDlmd017377 for ; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 14:13:47 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB8KDflr005365 for ; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 14:13:47 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9E9D6144B0001; Wed, 8 Dec 2010 14:13:40 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101208201340.9E9D6144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 14:13:40 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 826 FXPQ60 PGUM 082013 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 613 AM CHST THU DEC 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... MARIANAS REMAIN BENEATH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 10N. WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES ARE LINED UP EAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES NEAR 150E...155E AND 160E. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE A VERY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN RESUMPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENTLY NEAR 150E ARRIVES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY PASSING TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH QPF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AGREE WITH THIS AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MARIANAS. && .MARINE... CDIP SERVER IS CURRENTLY DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE...SO HAVE HAD TO RELY ON ALTIMETRY TO INITIALIZE TRADE-WIND SWELL. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVEL SURF IS EXPECTED ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF ON WEST FACING REEFS IS STILL EXPECTED TO RISE TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN ARRIVE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SHALLOW ACTIVITY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 6N AND 10N ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN TODAY AND THE WEEKEND...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS ZEROES IN ON A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE THAT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR POHNPEI THIS WEEKEND. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE AND WEST OF MAJURO...LEAVING BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF KOROR IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR YAP AND PALAU. GFS TIME-HEIGHT IS SHOWING ABUNDANT LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER BOTH LOCATIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CALLS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER BOTH LOCATIONS AS WELL TODAY. IF THE CIRCULATION IS SLOW TO MOVE WEST...SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND OVER YAP AND KOROR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRADE- WIND CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR CHUUK AND EASTWARD TO POHNPEI. MODELS CLEAR THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS A TUTT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM 10N. ACCORDINGLY...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON CHUUK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.