Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Dec 2010 03:03:14 -0600

898 
FXPQ60 PGUM 090903
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
703 PM CHST THU DEC 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
A WEAK TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TRADE DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE ISLANDS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
APPEAR ON RADAR...SO ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE TONIGHT A BIT
EARLIER THAN INDICATED BY THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS THEM OFF JUST EAST
UNTIL FRI MORNING. GFS BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE THRU FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE CLOUDS FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT KEPT
POPS JUST SHY OF SCATTERED AT 24 PCT. 

&&

.MARINE...
WW3 GUIDANCE STILL HAS NW SWELL PEAKING AT 4 FEET FRI NIGHT...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO 3 FEET SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAY
FLIRT BRIEFLY WITH HIGH SURF FRI NIGHT IF NW SWELL IS ANY HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH SURF OBSERVATIONS
CLOSELY ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MID-LEVEL DRYING RETURNS. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED WESTWARD FROM JUST WEST OF POHNPEI EARLIER
THIS THURSDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A FEW SHORT PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS ZEROES IN ON A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD THAT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR POHNPEI FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE AND WEST OF
MAJURO LEAVING KOSRAE AND MAJURO WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ABUNDANT LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE GFS TIME HEIGHT MODEL
FOR KOROR AND YAP AND GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS GIVE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE TO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION
IS DISSIPATING NEAR KOROR AND THERE IS PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THERE IS A LINE OF DEMARCATION
ALONG 140E BETWEEN THE CLEARING TO THE SOUTH OF KOROR AND THE
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF 140E WILL
AFFECT YAP AND CHUUK TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE A DAY OR TWO OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
CHUUK BEGINNING SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LONGER TERM FOR THESE THREE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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