From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Dec 9 17:03:37 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB993aZD006275 for ; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 17:03:37 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB960iJI027712; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 03:03:22 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4694850 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 03:03:22 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB993L75008466 for ; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 03:03:21 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB993FS7024235 for ; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 03:03:21 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2DA90144B0001; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 03:03:14 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101209090315.2DA90144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 9 Dec 2010 03:03:14 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 898 FXPQ60 PGUM 090903 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 703 PM CHST THU DEC 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A WEAK TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... THE TRADE DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE ISLANDS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON RADAR...SO ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE TONIGHT A BIT EARLIER THAN INDICATED BY THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS THEM OFF JUST EAST UNTIL FRI MORNING. GFS BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE THRU FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE CLOUDS FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT KEPT POPS JUST SHY OF SCATTERED AT 24 PCT. && .MARINE... WW3 GUIDANCE STILL HAS NW SWELL PEAKING AT 4 FEET FRI NIGHT...THEN DROPPING BACK TO 3 FEET SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAY FLIRT BRIEFLY WITH HIGH SURF FRI NIGHT IF NW SWELL IS ANY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH SURF OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MID-LEVEL DRYING RETURNS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS MOVED WESTWARD FROM JUST WEST OF POHNPEI EARLIER THIS THURSDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS ZEROES IN ON A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD THAT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR POHNPEI FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE AND WEST OF MAJURO LEAVING KOSRAE AND MAJURO WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... ABUNDANT LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE GFS TIME HEIGHT MODEL FOR KOROR AND YAP AND GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS GIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE TO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING NEAR KOROR AND THERE IS PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THERE IS A LINE OF DEMARCATION ALONG 140E BETWEEN THE CLEARING TO THE SOUTH OF KOROR AND THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF 140E WILL AFFECT YAP AND CHUUK TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE A DAY OR TWO OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR CHUUK BEGINNING SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LONGER TERM FOR THESE THREE LOCATIONS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.