From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Dec 10 04:48:17 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oB9KmG5c025988 for ; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 04:48:16 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB960i0d027712; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 14:47:59 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4704212 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 14:47:59 -0600 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB9KlxxR020373 for ; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 14:47:59 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oB9KlqPg011530 for ; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 14:47:58 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 56CF0144B0001; Thu, 9 Dec 2010 14:47:52 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101209204752.56CF0144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 9 Dec 2010 14:47:52 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 028 FXPQ60 PGUM 092047 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 647 AM CHST FRI DEC 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION... NO CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER OVER THE MARIANAS FOR ANOTHER DAY SO LEFT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MODELS STILL SHOW THIS IS POSSIBLE. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THESE STAYING SOUTH OF GUAM. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE RULE TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL HELP INCREASE WINDS OVER THE AREA PEAKING THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FALLING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD GENERATE BRIEFLY HIGHER SURF ON WEST FACING REEFS TONIGHT. SURF ON NORTH FACING REEFS IS PREDICTED TO BE 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WHICH IS JUST SHY OF HIGH SURF CRITERIA. EXPECT SURF TO NOT BECOME HAZARDOUS AND AT ANY RATE THE SURF WILL FALL TO 5 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. BASED ON IMAGERY FROM THE RADAR ON KWAJALEIN...SHOWER COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS MAINLY AT WIDELY SCATTERED CATEGORY. THIS GENERAL TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MAJURO INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY TO CREATE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TODAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THRU SATURDAY EVENING FOR KOSRAE AND INTO SUNDAY ON POHNPEI. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A DRIER SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT TO THE MARSHALLS AND KOSRAE. THIS SAME DRIER AIR MASS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH POHNPEI DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTING FARTHER WEST OF CHUUK THIS MORNING...SUBSIDENCE RELATED TO AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERWARD...HEIGHTENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE SPREADING WESTWARD FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO SHIFT TOWARD A WETTER REGIME. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF AN UPPER HIGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS YAP AND PALAU TODAY. THEN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CHUUK WILL LIKELY PROLONG SIMILAR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH DRIER AIR EAST OF THE SECOND TROUGH MIGHT FINALLY INTRODUCE FAIRER WEATHER TO BOTH LOCATIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.