Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Dec 2010 14:47:52 -0600

028 
FXPQ60 PGUM 092047
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
647 AM CHST FRI DEC 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO
KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER
OVER THE MARIANAS FOR ANOTHER DAY SO LEFT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MODELS STILL SHOW THIS IS POSSIBLE. RADAR
SHOWED SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE BULK OF
THESE STAYING SOUTH OF GUAM. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL HELP INCREASE WINDS OVER
THE AREA PEAKING THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FALLING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD GENERATE
BRIEFLY HIGHER SURF ON WEST FACING REEFS TONIGHT. SURF ON NORTH
FACING REEFS IS PREDICTED TO BE 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WHICH IS JUST
SHY OF HIGH SURF CRITERIA. EXPECT SURF TO NOT BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND AT ANY RATE THE SURF WILL FALL TO 5 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. BASED ON IMAGERY FROM THE RADAR ON KWAJALEIN...SHOWER
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS MAINLY AT WIDELY
SCATTERED CATEGORY. THIS GENERAL TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MAJURO
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE IS
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY TO CREATE
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TODAY. AS
THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...A RELATIVELY
WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THRU SATURDAY EVENING FOR KOSRAE AND
INTO SUNDAY ON POHNPEI. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A DRIER
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT TO THE
MARSHALLS AND KOSRAE. THIS SAME DRIER AIR MASS WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH POHNPEI DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTING FARTHER WEST OF CHUUK THIS
MORNING...SUBSIDENCE RELATED TO AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH
WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERWARD...HEIGHTENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE SPREADING WESTWARD
FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO SHIFT TOWARD A
WETTER REGIME. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF AN UPPER
HIGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
MIGRATING ACROSS YAP AND PALAU TODAY. THEN THE SURFACE TROUGH
FROM CHUUK WILL LIKELY PROLONG SIMILAR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY
NIGHT. MUCH DRIER AIR EAST OF THE SECOND TROUGH MIGHT FINALLY
INTRODUCE FAIRER WEATHER TO BOTH LOCATIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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