From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Dec 10 16:10:10 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBA8A8bH003032 for ; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 16:10:09 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBA3HNOS027712; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 02:09:54 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4709090 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 02:09:54 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBA89rAX005889 for ; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 02:09:54 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBA89lrE017379 for ; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 02:09:53 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 76EA13FE085C; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 02:09:47 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101210080947.76EA13FE085C@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 02:09:47 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 638 FXPQ60 PGUM 100809 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 609 PM CHST FRI DEC 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS ARE DECREASING ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA WATERS AS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THEM WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE NW. && .DISCUSSION... GFS WAS MORE OR LESS ON THE RIGHT TRACK IN BRINGING A BULLS-EYE OF RAINFALL ACROSS GUAM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON--A FEATURE THE OTHER MODELS MISSED. WITH THE TROUGH NOW WEST OF THE ISLANDS...THINGS ARE DRYING UP QUICKLY. GFS KEEPS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE TRADES ARE INDICATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .MARINE... NW SWELL SHOULD PEAK TONIGHT AT 4 FEET...THEN FALL BACK TO 3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALONG WITH THE 6-FT NE SWELL...RIP RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE ON MOST EXPOSURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. BASED ON KWAJALEIN RADAR AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...THE SHOWER COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS BETWEEN SCATTERED AND ISOLATED CATEGORIES. MAJURO...JUST NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...HAS RECEIVED ISOLATED SHOWERS...KOSRAE HAS RECEIVED BORDERLINE SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POHNPEI MAINLY NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...HAS RECEIVED ISOLATED SHOWERS. AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR LOCATIONS THAT THE TROUGH-RELATED DISTURBANCE TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER. THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT KOSRAE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AND POHNPEI INTO SUNDAY. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A DRIER SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT TO THE MARSHALLS AND KOSRAE. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH POHNPEI EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... MARGINALLY WETTER WEATHER WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CHUUK AREA FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. PARTICULAR PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST...AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED MOST OF THE TIME. ELSEWHERE...WEATHER WILL VERY CHANGEABLE AT PALAU AND YAP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.