Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 02:09:47 -0600

638 
FXPQ60 PGUM 100809
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
609 PM CHST FRI DEC 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA WATERS AS THE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT THEM WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE NW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS WAS MORE OR LESS ON THE RIGHT TRACK IN BRINGING A BULLS-EYE OF
RAINFALL ACROSS GUAM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON--A FEATURE THE OTHER
MODELS MISSED. WITH THE TROUGH NOW WEST OF THE ISLANDS...THINGS
ARE DRYING UP QUICKLY. GFS KEEPS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
MODERATE TRADES ARE INDICATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NW SWELL SHOULD PEAK TONIGHT AT 4 FEET...THEN FALL BACK TO 3 FEET
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALONG WITH THE 6-FT NE SWELL...RIP RISK
WILL REMAIN MODERATE ON MOST EXPOSURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
BASED ON KWAJALEIN RADAR AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...THE
SHOWER COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS BETWEEN
SCATTERED AND ISOLATED CATEGORIES. MAJURO...JUST NORTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE...HAS RECEIVED ISOLATED SHOWERS...KOSRAE HAS RECEIVED
BORDERLINE SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POHNPEI MAINLY NORTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE...HAS RECEIVED ISOLATED SHOWERS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR LOCATIONS THAT THE TROUGH-RELATED DISTURBANCE TRACKS
DIRECTLY OVER. THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT KOSRAE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AND POHNPEI INTO SUNDAY. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A
DRIER SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT TO THE
MARSHALLS AND KOSRAE. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH POHNPEI
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MARGINALLY WETTER WEATHER WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CHUUK AREA FROM
EASTERN MICRONESIA OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. PARTICULAR PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST...AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED MOST OF
THE TIME. ELSEWHERE...WEATHER WILL VERY CHANGEABLE AT PALAU AND
YAP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS
INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA/SIMPSON

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