From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Dec 11 05:03:15 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBAL3Esw032019 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 05:03:15 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBA3HN4k027712; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 15:02:38 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4716674 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 15:02:38 -0600 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBAL2cxT008473 for ; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 15:02:38 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBAL2VFB005965 for ; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 15:02:38 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DD635144B0001; Fri, 10 Dec 2010 15:02:31 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101210210231.DD635144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 15:02:31 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 405 FXPQ60 PGUM 102102 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 702 AM CHST SAT DEC 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE MARIANAS TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. GFS...GFSE...UKMET AND NGPS ALL SHOW ESE WINDS ACROSS MARIANAS TODAY BECOMING EAST TONIGHT THAN TURNING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE AND PEAK ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. GFS...GFSE...UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN 700 MB RH BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCED SHOWER CHANCES TO SLIGHT SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ONLY THOUGHT AGAINST THE LOWER RAINFALL PREDICTION IS THAT MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH OF GUAM MONDAY BUT THEY KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE ALL OF THE SHOWERS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE HERE AS WELL. MODELS KEEP THE NORTHWEST SWELL AT 3 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT SO EXTENDED THE SURF HEIGHT OF 4 TO 6 FEET ON WEST FACING REEFS TO REFLECT THIS. SWELL SHOULD DECREASE ON SUNDAY. NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST. EXPECT ONLY A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING THRU THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. WEAKER TRADES EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE FAIRER TRADE-WIND REGIME FOR MAJURO INTO MONDAY. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AT THE LOWER LEVELS...NORTHEAST TRADES ARE INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG 6N WHILE SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE PROVIDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATOR. COMBINING BOTH OF THESE ELEMENTS WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...THE OUTCOME IS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM POHNPEI EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN MARSHALLS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER POHNPEI UNTIL THE TROUGH HAS PASSED WEST OF THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE BUT PERIODS OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING...DRIER WEATHER ALREADY OVER MAJURO WILL SPREAD OVER BOTH LOCATIONS. A TRADE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY WELL EAST OF THE DATE LINE NEAR 6N160W MIGHT AFFECT THE MARSHALLS AND KOSRAE DURING MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... PLEASANT WEATHER IS GOING TO LAST FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 16 HOURS OVER CHUUK. AFTERWARD...SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTING WESTWARD FROM POHNPEI WILL INTRODUCE INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE AREA THRU AT LEAST MONDAY. FARTHER WEST...THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT IMPROVEMENT FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THEN THE WET WEATHER CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHUUK COULD EVENTUALLY REACH YAP AND PALAU TOWARD MIDWEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.