Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 15:02:31 -0600

405 
FXPQ60 PGUM 102102
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
702 AM CHST SAT DEC 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE MARIANAS TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON
RADAR THIS MORNING. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. GFS...GFSE...UKMET AND NGPS ALL SHOW
ESE WINDS ACROSS MARIANAS TODAY BECOMING EAST TONIGHT THAN TURNING
NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE AND PEAK ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.

ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AND
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. GFS...GFSE...UKMET AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN 700 MB RH BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCED SHOWER CHANCES TO SLIGHT SUNDAY...MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE ONLY THOUGHT AGAINST THE LOWER RAINFALL
PREDICTION IS THAT MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
SOUTH OF GUAM MONDAY BUT THEY KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH
OF THE MARIANAS. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE ALL OF THE SHOWERS WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HERE AS WELL. MODELS KEEP THE NORTHWEST SWELL AT 3
FEET THROUGH TONIGHT SO EXTENDED THE SURF HEIGHT OF 4 TO 6 FEET
ON WEST FACING REEFS TO REFLECT THIS. SWELL SHOULD DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST. EXPECT
ONLY A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING THRU THE WESTERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. WEAKER TRADES EAST OF THE TROUGH
ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE FAIRER TRADE-WIND REGIME FOR MAJURO INTO
MONDAY. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AT THE LOWER LEVELS...NORTHEAST
TRADES ARE INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG 6N WHILE SOUTHEAST TRADES
ARE PROVIDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATOR. COMBINING BOTH
OF THESE ELEMENTS WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...THE OUTCOME IS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM POHNPEI EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN
MARSHALLS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER POHNPEI UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS PASSED WEST OF THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE BUT PERIODS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING...DRIER WEATHER
ALREADY OVER MAJURO WILL SPREAD OVER BOTH LOCATIONS. A TRADE
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY WELL EAST OF THE DATE LINE NEAR 6N160W
MIGHT AFFECT THE MARSHALLS AND KOSRAE DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
PLEASANT WEATHER IS GOING TO LAST FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 16 HOURS OVER
CHUUK. AFTERWARD...SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTING WESTWARD FROM
POHNPEI WILL INTRODUCE INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE AREA THRU AT
LEAST MONDAY. FARTHER WEST...THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
THEN THE WET WEATHER CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHUUK COULD EVENTUALLY
REACH YAP AND PALAU TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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