From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Dec 11 15:47:54 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBB7lqJn004488 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 15:47:53 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBANphRx027712; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 01:47:33 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4721411 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 01:47:33 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBB7lWrc017435 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 01:47:32 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBB7lQl0006723 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 01:47:32 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 54F403FE0857; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 01:47:26 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101211074726.54F403FE0857@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2010 01:47:26 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 354 FXPQ60 PGUM 110747 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 547 PM CHST SAT DEC 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS OUT TO ABOUT 148E. BEYOND THAT...VERY DRY-LOOKING WITH ONLY SOME VERY SHALLOW CUMULUS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOW DRY PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUN-MON WHEN GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE-BASED MOIST LATER TO BE VERY SHALLOW WITH SHARP DRYING ABOVE ABOUT 875 MB. THUS...ISOLATED LOOKS OK FOR TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE STILL SEEMS ON TRACK FOR SUN THRU MON. MOIST LAYER GRADUALLY DEEPENS AFTER THAT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... NW TO NORTH SWELL SHOULD HOLD AROUND 3 FT THRU MON NIGHT BEFORE FALLING TO 2 FT OR LESS TUESDAY. AS THE SWELL BECOMES MORE NORTH...SURF SHOULD FALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WEST FACING REEFS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 5-7 FEET ALONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FACING SHORES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... TWO SLOW-MOVING SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA. THESE HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM SW OF CHUUK TO SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN THIS EVENING. WEAKER TRADES EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A FAIR WEATHER TRADE-WIND REGIME FOR MAJURO INTO MONDAY. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AT THE LOWER LEVELS...NORTHEAST TRADES ARE INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG 6N WHILE SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE PROVIDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATOR. THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM POHNPEI EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN MARSHALLS WILL PERSIST OVER POHNPEI UNTIL THE TROUGH HAS PASSED WEST OF THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE. BY MONDAY MORNING...DRIER WEATHER ALREADY OVER MAJURO WILL SPREAD OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST IS NEARLY OVER CHUUK. THIS INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY. FARTHER WEST...THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BRING YAP AND PALAU GOOD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSING OF A WEAK TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING ONLY MOSTLY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE WET WEATHER APPROACHING CHUUK COULD EVENTUALLY REACH YAP AND PALAU TOWARD MIDWEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.