Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2010 01:47:26 -0600

354 
FXPQ60 PGUM 110747
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
547 PM CHST SAT DEC 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
MARIANAS OUT TO ABOUT 148E. BEYOND THAT...VERY DRY-LOOKING WITH
ONLY SOME VERY SHALLOW CUMULUS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW DRY PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUN-MON
WHEN GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE-BASED MOIST LATER TO BE VERY SHALLOW
WITH SHARP DRYING ABOVE ABOUT 875 MB. THUS...ISOLATED LOOKS OK FOR
TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE STILL SEEMS ON TRACK FOR SUN THRU MON.
MOIST LAYER GRADUALLY DEEPENS AFTER THAT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NW TO NORTH SWELL SHOULD HOLD AROUND 3 FT THRU MON NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING TO 2 FT OR LESS TUESDAY. AS THE SWELL BECOMES MORE
NORTH...SURF SHOULD FALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WEST FACING
REEFS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 5-7 FEET ALONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FACING SHORES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS.  

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TWO SLOW-MOVING SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING WESTWARD THROUGH 
EASTERN MICRONESIA. THESE HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 
CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM SW OF CHUUK TO SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN THIS
EVENING. WEAKER TRADES EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE A FAIR WEATHER TRADE-WIND REGIME FOR MAJURO INTO
MONDAY. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AT THE LOWER LEVELS...NORTHEAST
TRADES ARE INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG 6N WHILE SOUTHEAST TRADES
ARE PROVIDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATOR. THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FROM POHNPEI EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN MARSHALLS WILL
PERSIST OVER POHNPEI UNTIL THE TROUGH HAS PASSED WEST OF THE
ISLAND ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF KOSRAE. BY MONDAY MORNING...DRIER WEATHER ALREADY OVER
MAJURO WILL SPREAD OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST IS NEARLY OVER CHUUK. THIS 
INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY. FARTHER WEST...THE 
FORMATION OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL BRING YAP AND PALAU GOOD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE
APPROACH AND PASSING OF A WEAK TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING ONLY
MOSTLY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE WET WEATHER APPROACHING
CHUUK COULD EVENTUALLY REACH YAP AND PALAU TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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