From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Dec 12 03:40:00 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBBJdxc9015714 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 03:40:00 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBANphm2027712; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:39:25 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4727295 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:39:24 -0600 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBBJdOYd002693 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:39:24 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBBJdIaH022189 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:39:24 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 1703B3FE085F; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:39:18 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101211193918.1703B3FE085F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:39:18 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 111930 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 114.3E TO 11.0N 109.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 113.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 116.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111414Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING AND A 111413Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONGER 20-KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER 10-KNOT WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. SHIP OBSERVATIONS APPROXIMATELY 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST INDICATE PRESSURES OF 1006 TO 1007 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, DRY, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC IS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT, MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT OR ONLY ALLOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO INCREASE CENTRAL CONVECTION, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 121930Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.