From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Dec 12 03:58:39 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBBJwcxu016925 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 03:58:38 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBANphn4027712; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:58:14 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4727496 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:58:14 -0600 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBBJwEC9004157 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:58:14 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBBJw74h018234 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:58:14 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DAC043FE086E; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:58:07 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101211195807.DAC043FE086E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:58:07 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 112000 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/112000Z-120600ZDEC2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111921ZDEC2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 116.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111414Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING AND A 111413Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONGER 20-KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER 10-KNOT WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. SHIP OBSERVATIONS APPROXIMATELY 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST INDICATE PRESSURES OF 1006 TO 1007 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, DRY, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC IS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT, WHICH MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT OR ONLY ALLOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASE CENTRAL CONVECTION, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO GOOD.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.