Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2010 15:00:06 -0600

722 
FXPQ60 PGUM 112059
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
659 AM CHST SUN DEC 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
MICRONESIA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE THE
WINDS OVER THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PEAK ON MONDAY THEN
SLOWLY DECREASE THEREAFTER.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
GUAM AND SOUTH OF 10N ON MONDAY. CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH OF 10N AND SOME MODELS BRING THE
MOISTURE VERY CLOSE TO GUAM. MODELS SHOW THAT 700 MB RH FALLS
VERY LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AGAIN ON MONDAY AND THEN
GOING ABOVE 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL 
KEEP SURF AT 3 TO 5 FEET ON WEST FACING REEFS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 
BEFORE DECREASING. EAST TO NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE HAS PUSHED THE AXIS OF A TRADE
DISTURBANCE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI THIS MORNING. WEAKER
CONVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW DRIER
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD FROM MAJURO TO BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
TODAY. HOWEVER THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE SHORT...ESPECIALLY FOR
POHNPEI. AS THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF JAPAN SLIDES
EASTWARD...IT WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL MODERATE SURFACE WINDS TOWARD
EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM THE NORTH. IN RESPONSE...A CONVERGENT
ZONE AGAINST THE SOUTH-EASTERLIES FROM THE EQUATOR IS EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE ALONG 7N FROM WEST TO EAST. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER POHNPEI BY
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN EXTEND TO KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALLS TOWARD
MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TRADE DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO CHUUK COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
ENGULF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MAKES IT
WAY THROUGH. AFTERWARD...RELATIVELY WET CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THRU MIDWEEK AS A TRADE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FORMS BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE. LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL SOUNDING
DATA INDICATE A SLOT OF MUCH DRIER AIR EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO YAP AND KOROR. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER REGIME FOR
BOTH LOCATIONS THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE REMNANTS OF THE
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING CHUUK IS GOING TO IMPACT THE REGION.
HOWEVER BY BEING FARTHER NORTH...YAP MIGHT BE SPARED FROM THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTION.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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