From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Dec 12 05:00:54 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBBL0qTQ026110 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 05:00:54 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBB1w5YA011741; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 15:00:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4728019 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 15:00:14 -0600 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBBL0Ex6008077 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 15:00:14 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBBL072O027629 for ; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 15:00:13 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id F0803144B0003; Sat, 11 Dec 2010 15:00:06 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101211210006.F0803144B0003@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2010 15:00:06 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 722 FXPQ60 PGUM 112059 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 659 AM CHST SUN DEC 12 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MICRONESIA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE THE WINDS OVER THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PEAK ON MONDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THEREAFTER. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF GUAM AND SOUTH OF 10N ON MONDAY. CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH OF 10N AND SOME MODELS BRING THE MOISTURE VERY CLOSE TO GUAM. MODELS SHOW THAT 700 MB RH FALLS VERY LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AGAIN ON MONDAY AND THEN GOING ABOVE 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THEREAFTER. && .MARINE... NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL KEEP SURF AT 3 TO 5 FEET ON WEST FACING REEFS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING. EAST TO NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE HAS PUSHED THE AXIS OF A TRADE DISTURBANCE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI THIS MORNING. WEAKER CONVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW DRIER CONDITIONS TO SPREAD FROM MAJURO TO BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TODAY. HOWEVER THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE SHORT...ESPECIALLY FOR POHNPEI. AS THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF JAPAN SLIDES EASTWARD...IT WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL MODERATE SURFACE WINDS TOWARD EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM THE NORTH. IN RESPONSE...A CONVERGENT ZONE AGAINST THE SOUTH-EASTERLIES FROM THE EQUATOR IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ALONG 7N FROM WEST TO EAST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER POHNPEI BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN EXTEND TO KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALLS TOWARD MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TRADE DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO CHUUK COASTAL WATERS AND WILL ENGULF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MAKES IT WAY THROUGH. AFTERWARD...RELATIVELY WET CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU MIDWEEK AS A TRADE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FORMS BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL SOUNDING DATA INDICATE A SLOT OF MUCH DRIER AIR EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO YAP AND KOROR. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER REGIME FOR BOTH LOCATIONS THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE REMNANTS OF THE DISTURBANCE AFFECTING CHUUK IS GOING TO IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER BY BEING FARTHER NORTH...YAP MIGHT BE SPARED FROM THE BRUNT OF THE ACTION. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.