From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Dec 12 15:26:18 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBC7QGsB026576 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 15:26:17 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBC6tjGB027712; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 01:25:57 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4733631 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 01:25:57 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBC7PvhD014788 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 01:25:57 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBC7PoT0017630 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 01:25:56 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 5E51D3FE0853; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 01:25:50 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101212072550.5E51D3FE0853@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2010 01:25:50 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 125 FXPQ60 PGUM 120725 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 525 PM CHST SUN DEC 12 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR INDICATES NEXT TO NOTHING...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A BATCH OF SHALLOW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS EAST OF THE ISLANDS AROUND 147-149E...MOVING WEST. && .DISCUSSION... BOTH GFS AND UKMET GIVE AN INDICATION OF THE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MARIANAS AND THE GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING--BUT ONLY 0.01 INCHES OR LESS. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 10 AM MON MORNING...OTHERWISE NONE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NORTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SURF WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE DISTURBANCE OVER CHUUK ARE EXITING POHNPEI COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING ALLOWING DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO FILTER IN OVER THE REGION. AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING MID-LATITUDE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION...EXPECT CONVERGENCE AND ULTIMATELY SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE MAINLY OVER POHNPEI MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN MAJURO AND KOSRAE BY MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THIS FEATURE INTACT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARDS YAP AND PALAU MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NARROW CONVERGENT ZONE. MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP AND KOROR BY TUESDAY BUT TIMING ADVANCEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED GIVEN CURRENT MOTION OBSERVED IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. UNTIL THEN...YAP AND KOROR WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY SUBSIDING AIRMASS AS SEEN IN 00Z SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.