Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2010 01:25:50 -0600

125 
FXPQ60 PGUM 120725
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
525 PM CHST SUN DEC 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR INDICATES NEXT TO NOTHING...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A
BATCH OF SHALLOW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS EAST OF THE ISLANDS AROUND
147-149E...MOVING WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BOTH GFS AND UKMET GIVE AN INDICATION OF THE SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MARIANAS AND THE GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING--BUT ONLY 0.01 INCHES OR
LESS. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 10 AM MON MORNING...OTHERWISE NONE OR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SURF
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE DISTURBANCE OVER CHUUK ARE EXITING 
POHNPEI COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING ALLOWING DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW 
TO FILTER IN OVER THE REGION. AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE IN 
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING MID-LATITUDE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH 
OF THE REGION...EXPECT CONVERGENCE AND ULTIMATELY SHOWER COVERAGE TO 
INCREASE MAINLY OVER POHNPEI MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN MAJURO 
AND KOSRAE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH A TRADE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THIS FEATURE INTACT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 
TOWARDS YAP AND PALAU MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE 
TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NARROW CONVERGENT 
ZONE. MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP AND KOROR BY TUESDAY BUT 
TIMING ADVANCEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED GIVEN CURRENT MOTION OBSERVED IN 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. UNTIL THEN...YAP AND KOROR WILL REMAIN 
UNDER A DRY SUBSIDING AIRMASS AS SEEN IN 00Z SOUNDING AND WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS

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