Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 19w (nineteen) Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2010 13:52:06 -0600

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 111.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 111.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 10.6N 110.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 11.2N 109.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 11.8N 108.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 12.5N 107.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 111.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121345Z
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL BANDING. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 19W IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TD 19W IS CURRENTLY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL (700 MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 12/12Z 700MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE STR EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE (TO INCLUDE NOGAPS,
ECMWF, GFS, JGSM AND UKMO) IS CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING THE STR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TD 19W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER VIETNAM BY
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//

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