From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Dec 13 03:53:06 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBCJr4iG004090 for ; Mon, 13 Dec 2010 03:53:05 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBC6tjA4027712; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 13:52:17 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4741789 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 13:52:17 -0600 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBCJqG0E007229 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 13:52:16 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBCJq6DP011673 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 13:52:16 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id AF2523FE0856; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 13:52:06 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101212195206.AF2523FE0856@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2010 13:52:06 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 19w (nineteen) Warning Nr 002 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 111.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 111.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 10.6N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 11.2N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 11.8N 108.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.5N 107.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 111.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121345Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL BANDING. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 19W IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TD 19W IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL (700 MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 12/12Z 700MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE STR EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE (TO INCLUDE NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFS, JGSM AND UKMO) IS CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TD 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER VIETNAM BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.