From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Dec 13 05:24:05 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBCLO4En011192 for ; Mon, 13 Dec 2010 05:24:05 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBC6tjDe027712; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 15:23:54 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4742462 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 15:23:54 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBCLNsCA012461 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 15:23:54 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBCLNmqc014744 for ; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 15:23:54 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id EC965144B0002; Sun, 12 Dec 2010 15:23:47 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101212212347.EC965144B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2010 15:23:47 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 323 FXPQ60 PGUM 122123 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 723 AM CHST MON DEC 13 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... A FEW CLOUDS WERE PASSING OVER THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING... PROBABLY FROM A VERY WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE. WHILE EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS WERE EXPECTED THE DISTURBANCE HAS CAUSED WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST. HARD TO SAY HOW LONG THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...FIGURE THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY NOON TIME SO LEFT FORECAST AS IS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL PEAK TODAY THAN TAPER OFF TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS NO RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED. MODELS SHOW 700 MB RH BOTTOMS OUT TODAY AT A FAIRLY LOW LEVEL. FIGURE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE BUT LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 700 MB RH BEGINS TO RISE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS RISE THE RH NEVER GETS ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEK SO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST JUST HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS MICRONESIA CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE. EARLIER MODEL PREDICTIONS DID SHOW MOISTURE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING UP VERY CLOSE TO GUAM. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF 10N. && .MARINE... NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EAST AND NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AND THEREFORE SURF WILL FALL ON NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS THEREAFTER. THE EAST SWELL WILL RISE SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SURF ON THE EAST FACING REEFS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHEAST WINDS GENERATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MINAMI TORISHIMA...AND SOUTHEAST TRADES FROM THE EQUATOR IS TAKING SHAPE ALONG 7N ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. A SERIES OF SURFACE IMPULSES ARE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE FIRST ONE IS APPROACHING POHNPEI THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FROM NOON TODAY THRU TONIGHT. A SECOND ONE IS JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE AND WILL PUT AN END TO THE DRIER WEATHER ON BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO BY TUESDAY. FINALLY...A THIRD WAVE EAST OF THE DATE LINE IS GOING TO PROLONG THIS RELATIVELY WET PATTERN OVER ALL LOCATIONS THRU MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF A DEPARTED TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A DAY OF DRIER WEATHER OVER CHUUK. BY TUESDAY...CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM POHNPEI WILL CAUSE MORE SHOWERY WEATHER THRU MIDWEEK. THE TRADE DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED CHUUK EARLIER IS STEADILY MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD YAP AND PALAU. QUIET CONDITIONS OVER BOTH LOCATIONS WILL BE REPLACED BY INCLEMENT WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. SINCE YAP WILL BE FARTHER NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVERGENCE...IMPROVEMENT THERE SHOULD BEGIN EARLIER AROUND TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... GENTLE TRADES BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.