Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2010 15:23:47 -0600

323 
FXPQ60 PGUM 122123
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
723 AM CHST MON DEC 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CLOUDS WERE PASSING OVER THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING...
PROBABLY FROM A VERY WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE. WHILE EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS WERE EXPECTED THE DISTURBANCE HAS CAUSED WINDS TO
BECOME NORTHEAST. HARD TO SAY HOW LONG THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...FIGURE THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY NOON TIME SO LEFT FORECAST AS IS. EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL PEAK TODAY THAN TAPER OFF TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS NO RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED. MODELS SHOW 700
MB RH BOTTOMS OUT TODAY AT A FAIRLY LOW LEVEL. FIGURE IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE BUT LEFT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 700 MB RH BEGINS TO RISE
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS RISE THE RH NEVER GETS
ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEK SO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
JUST HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS.

THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS MICRONESIA CAN BE SEEN
ON SATELLITE. EARLIER MODEL PREDICTIONS DID SHOW MOISTURE NORTH
OF THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING UP VERY CLOSE TO GUAM. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF 10N.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EAST AND
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AND THEREFORE SURF WILL FALL ON
NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS THEREAFTER. THE EAST SWELL WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SURF ON THE EAST FACING REEFS
SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHEAST WINDS GENERATED BY A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MINAMI TORISHIMA...AND SOUTHEAST TRADES 
FROM THE EQUATOR IS TAKING SHAPE ALONG 7N ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. 
A SERIES OF SURFACE IMPULSES ARE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THIS 
BOUNDARY. THE FIRST ONE IS APPROACHING POHNPEI THIS MORNING AND WILL 
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FROM NOON TODAY THRU TONIGHT. A SECOND ONE 
IS JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE AND WILL PUT AN END TO THE DRIER 
WEATHER ON BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO BY TUESDAY. FINALLY...A THIRD WAVE 
EAST OF THE DATE LINE IS GOING TO PROLONG THIS RELATIVELY WET 
PATTERN OVER ALL LOCATIONS THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF A DEPARTED TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE 
IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A DAY OF DRIER WEATHER OVER CHUUK. BY 
TUESDAY...CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM POHNPEI 
WILL CAUSE MORE SHOWERY WEATHER THRU MIDWEEK. THE TRADE DISTURBANCE 
THAT AFFECTED CHUUK EARLIER IS STEADILY MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD YAP 
AND PALAU. QUIET CONDITIONS OVER BOTH LOCATIONS WILL BE REPLACED BY 
INCLEMENT WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. SINCE YAP 
WILL BE FARTHER NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVERGENCE...IMPROVEMENT THERE 
SHOULD BEGIN EARLIER AROUND TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... 
GENTLE TRADES BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER FOR 
THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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