From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Dec 14 04:45:31 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBDKjUXp003155 for ; Tue, 14 Dec 2010 04:45:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBDJJ9Px027712; Mon, 13 Dec 2010 14:45:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4756527 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 13 Dec 2010 14:45:15 -0600 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBDKjETU027194 for ; Mon, 13 Dec 2010 14:45:14 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBDKj7Bi028546 for ; Mon, 13 Dec 2010 14:45:14 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id C4A92144B0001; Mon, 13 Dec 2010 14:45:05 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101213204505.C4A92144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2010 14:45:05 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 383 FXPQ60 PGUM 132044 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 644 AM CHST TUE DEC 14 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PUSHED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS GUAM THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS GUAM THROUGH TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO GUAM TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS THAT MOISTURE FROM THE DISTURBANCE WOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO GUAM...ALTHOUGH KEEPING IT SOUTH OF GUAM ALL THE TIME. A BIT OF THE SHOWER AREA BUBBLED UP TO GUAM AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH OF GUAM...BUT CAN NOT OVERRULE REALITY SO ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GUAM FOR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING EAST OF GUAM TO AT LEAST 152E. FIGURE THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS GUAM THROUGH TONIGHT SO ADDED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO GUAM'S FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD NOT PUSH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ROTA CHANNEL SO LEFT MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR ROTA, TINIAN, AND SAIPAN. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RETURN TO GUAM BY WEDNESDAY. BASIC EAST TRADE- WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING AN INTERESTING FEATURE NEAR THE END OF ITS RUN AT DAY 9 AND 10. IT IS SHOWING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THE 23RD. IT ACTUALLY DEPICTS WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS ON THAT DAY AND THE 13/06Z ITERATION OF THE MODEL SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE 13/12Z RUN BACKED OFF ON THIS BUT WHO KNOWS SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN TIME AND THINGS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN. && .MARINE... NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SURF ON NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS WILL DECLINE. EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST AND BASICALLY REMAIN THE SAME WITH MINOR CHANGES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LOW-LEVEL CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP NEAR POHNPEI AND NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE AS A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD. GFS40 AND ECMWF SEEM TO OFFER THE BEST GUIDANCE IN KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RESUME...MIRRORING CONDITIONS AT BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO. MODELS PICK UP ON ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR THE DATELINE BUT KEEP CONVECTION ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ONLY ECMWF GREATLY INCREASES CONVECTION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THEN HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF MAJURO. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY SOUTH OF GUAM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST TOWARD YAP AND PALAU. STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS AT YAP INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS IS LIKELY JUST EAST OF THE AREA. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH LESS DEEP CONVECTION THAN 12 HOURS EARLIER...BUT MODELS ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AT YAP AND INTO TONIGHT AT PALAU. A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF PALAU WILL SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NE WINDS TO E THEN SE BY WED NIGHT. AT CHUUK...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN. MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT UNTIL THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD TAKE OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.