From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Dec 14 14:33:56 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBE6XtgA025066 for ; Tue, 14 Dec 2010 14:33:56 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBDJJ9pN027712; Tue, 14 Dec 2010 00:33:40 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4762254 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 14 Dec 2010 00:33:39 -0600 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBE6XaFI011263 for ; Tue, 14 Dec 2010 00:33:37 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBE6XUDd004274 for ; Tue, 14 Dec 2010 00:33:36 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 215703FE0084; Tue, 14 Dec 2010 00:33:30 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101214063330.215703FE0084@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2010 00:33:30 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 264 FXPQ60 PGUM 140633 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 433 PM CHST TUE DEC 14 2010 .SYNOPSIS... LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE MARIANAS AND YAP. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING A DIFFUSE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE GUAM AND ROTA FORECAST ZONES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 160E. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE ZONES EAST OF GUAM AND ROTA CONTINUES TO ATROPHY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR ROTA THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND TONIGHT... MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS STILL CALLS FOR SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PREDOMINATE UNTIL THE NEXT NORTH SWELL EVENT COMMENCES THIS WEEKEND. WAVE WATCH TABULAR GUIDANCE DOES NOT CALL FOR SWELL LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF ON RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LOW-LEVEL CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP NEAR POHNPEI AND NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD. GFS40 AND ECMWF SEEM TO OFFER THE BEST GUIDANCE IN KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RESUME...MIRRORING CONDITIONS OVER BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO. MODELS PICK UP ON ANOTHER TROUGH PRESENTLY NEAR THE DATELINE BUT KEEP CONVECTION ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ONLY THE ECMWF GREATLY INCREASES CONVECTION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THEN HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF MAJURO. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION NEAR YAP AND KOROR HAS STEADILY DECREASED THROUGH THE DAY...THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DROPPED FOR TONIGHT AT KOROR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CLEARING OVER YAP AND KOROR WITH SOME CLOUDS REMAINING EAST OF THESE LOCALES COURTESY OF A SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF KOROR WILL HEAD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROUGH. GFS OPENS UP THIS CIRCULATION AS IT PASSES OVER KOROR. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW OVER KOROR...DECREASING TONIGHT AT YAP. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER CHUUK TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWLY BRINGS THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI OVER CHUUK BY THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.