Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2010 00:33:30 -0600

264 
FXPQ60 PGUM 140633
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
433 PM CHST TUE DEC 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE
MARIANAS AND YAP. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH WAS
PRODUCING A DIFFUSE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE GUAM
AND ROTA FORECAST ZONES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 160E. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER
THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER
THE MARINE ZONES EAST OF GUAM AND ROTA CONTINUES TO ATROPHY. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR ROTA THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND TONIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS STILL CALLS FOR SEASONABLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PREDOMINATE UNTIL THE NEXT NORTH SWELL EVENT 
COMMENCES THIS WEEKEND. WAVE WATCH TABULAR GUIDANCE DOES NOT CALL 
FOR SWELL LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF ON RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES TO 
EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LOW-LEVEL CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP NEAR POHNPEI AND
NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
WESTWARD. GFS40 AND ECMWF SEEM TO OFFER THE BEST GUIDANCE IN
KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RESUME...MIRRORING CONDITIONS
OVER BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO. MODELS PICK UP ON ANOTHER TROUGH
PRESENTLY NEAR THE DATELINE BUT KEEP CONVECTION ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. ONLY THE ECMWF GREATLY INCREASES CONVECTION BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THEN HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF MAJURO.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION NEAR YAP AND KOROR HAS STEADILY DECREASED THROUGH THE
DAY...THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DROPPED FOR TONIGHT AT
KOROR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CLEARING OVER YAP AND
KOROR WITH SOME CLOUDS REMAINING EAST OF THESE LOCALES COURTESY
OF A SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE
SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF KOROR WILL HEAD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH
THE TROUGH. GFS OPENS UP THIS CIRCULATION AS IT PASSES OVER
KOROR. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW OVER
KOROR...DECREASING TONIGHT AT YAP. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVER CHUUK TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWLY BRINGS THE
TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI OVER CHUUK BY THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PREVAIL OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT

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