Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2010 01:12:59 -0600

463 
FXPQ60 PGUM 150712
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
512 PM CHST WED DEC 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE
TRADES PERSISTS FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR CHUUK AND IN THE
MARSHALLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
NORTH OF 10N WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY SHOWN
IN THE NWP MODELS. EVEN THE WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING WEST OF
CHUUK IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING OFF OF JAPAN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FEET. A SLOW
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM SWELLS GENERATED BY THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN MARIANAS BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...STRONG DIVERGENCE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH CREATED A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT MAJURO THIS MORNING. WEATHER
HAS BECOME MORE SETTLED AT MAJURO AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
WEST. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO EASTERLIES BY
TOMORROW AS DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO MAJURO. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR CHUUK IS
BEGINNING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. A WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN EMBEDDED IN
THE TROUGH IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK.
GFS AND UKMET INITIALIZE THIS IN THE 00Z RUN...BECOMING AN OPEN
WAVE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KOROR WILL BECOME
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR KOROR MOVES WEST.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AT YAP AND KOROR AS THE
TROUGH NEAR CHUUK APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

EDSON/M. AYDLETT

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