From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Dec 15 15:13:41 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBF7De2p018276 for ; Wed, 15 Dec 2010 15:13:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBEHsbp7027712; Wed, 15 Dec 2010 01:13:06 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4774510 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 15 Dec 2010 01:13:05 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBF7D5PS016379 for ; Wed, 15 Dec 2010 01:13:05 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBF7Cxo1020241 for ; Wed, 15 Dec 2010 01:13:05 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 373EB3FE0084; Wed, 15 Dec 2010 01:12:59 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101215071259.373EB3FE0084@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2010 01:12:59 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 463 FXPQ60 PGUM 150712 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 512 PM CHST WED DEC 15 2010 .SYNOPSIS...SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PERSISTS FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS WITH JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR CHUUK AND IN THE MARSHALLS. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL NORTH OF 10N WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY SHOWN IN THE NWP MODELS. EVEN THE WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING WEST OF CHUUK IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING OFF OF JAPAN. && .MARINE...SMALL AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FEET. A SLOW INCREASE IN SEAS FROM SWELLS GENERATED BY THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN MARIANAS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA...STRONG DIVERGENCE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH CREATED A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT MAJURO THIS MORNING. WEATHER HAS BECOME MORE SETTLED AT MAJURO AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WEST. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO EASTERLIES BY TOMORROW AS DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO MAJURO. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR CHUUK IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. A WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. GFS AND UKMET INITIALIZE THIS IN THE 00Z RUN...BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KOROR WILL BECOME EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR KOROR MOVES WEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AT YAP AND KOROR AS THE TROUGH NEAR CHUUK APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ EDSON/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.