Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2010 01:17:01 -0600

830 
FXPQ60 PGUM 160716
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
516 PM CHST THU DEC 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE MARIANAS
AND WESTERN MICRONESIA WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
BETWEEN CHUUK AND THE MARSHALLS. REMNANTS OF A SHEAR LINE MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE MARIANAS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
THERE ARE NO ORGANIZED SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REVIEW OF ALL AVAILABLE NWPS SHOWS VERY LITTLE FOR
OUR AREA. NOT EVEN POSITIVE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING
OFF OF JAPAN WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO OUR LATITUDES. MORE LIKELY WILL
END UP GETTING SOME NORTHERLY SWELLS VERSUS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE ONLY FEATURE THAT HAS A POTENTIAL TO
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS THE REMNANTS OF
THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN 152E AND 160E. HERE...THE
MODELS ARE NOT AT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWN IN
THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE NOGAPS SHOWS PRETTY MUCH
NOTHING. PERHAPS A SLIGHT PICK UP OF WINDS TO 15KT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE THE BEST BET.

&&

.MARINE...KEPT GRIDS AS WE HAVE DEPICTED FOR THE LAST TWO FORECAST
RUNS. THE NORTHERLY SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER THAT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
SEE WHETHER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL INDUCE EVEN
BIGGER SWELLS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AS THE WW3 SUGGESTS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DISTURBANCE NEAR POHNPEI THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD 
WEAKENING SHEAR LINE MAY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE GENERALLY DRY AND 
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER. A VERY NARROW REMNANT OF THE SAME SHEAR LINE 
COULD AFFECT MAJURO OR KOSRAE IF IT BECOMES STATIONARY WITHIN THE 
RESPECTIVE MARINE ZONES. SHOWERS OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. 
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SHEAR LINE APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS 
MONDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD 
PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM FORMING. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF CHUUK IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO EITHER YAP OR KOROR
SINCE EXISTING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IN THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT
ANY TYPE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE
LONGER TERM...THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE MOSTLY DRY TRADE WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR CHUUK AS WELL AS MODERATE TRADE
WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

EDSON/DEVITA

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