From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Dec 16 15:17:25 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBG7HN0l008166 for ; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 15:17:24 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBG60ZJO027712; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 01:17:08 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4788677 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 01:17:08 -0600 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBG7H83x002232 for ; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 01:17:08 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBG7H10B012376 for ; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 01:17:07 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 807C6144B0001; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 01:17:01 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101216071701.807C6144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2010 01:17:01 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 830 FXPQ60 PGUM 160716 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 516 PM CHST THU DEC 16 2010 .SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE MARIANAS AND WESTERN MICRONESIA WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN CHUUK AND THE MARSHALLS. REMNANTS OF A SHEAR LINE MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE MARIANAS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO ORGANIZED SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...REVIEW OF ALL AVAILABLE NWPS SHOWS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR AREA. NOT EVEN POSITIVE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING OFF OF JAPAN WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO OUR LATITUDES. MORE LIKELY WILL END UP GETTING SOME NORTHERLY SWELLS VERSUS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE ONLY FEATURE THAT HAS A POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS THE REMNANTS OF THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN 152E AND 160E. HERE...THE MODELS ARE NOT AT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWN IN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE NOGAPS SHOWS PRETTY MUCH NOTHING. PERHAPS A SLIGHT PICK UP OF WINDS TO 15KT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE BEST BET. && .MARINE...KEPT GRIDS AS WE HAVE DEPICTED FOR THE LAST TWO FORECAST RUNS. THE NORTHERLY SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER THAT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SEE WHETHER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL INDUCE EVEN BIGGER SWELLS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AS THE WW3 SUGGESTS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A DISTURBANCE NEAR POHNPEI THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD WEAKENING SHEAR LINE MAY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER. A VERY NARROW REMNANT OF THE SAME SHEAR LINE COULD AFFECT MAJURO OR KOSRAE IF IT BECOMES STATIONARY WITHIN THE RESPECTIVE MARINE ZONES. SHOWERS OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SHEAR LINE APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS MONDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM FORMING. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF CHUUK IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO EITHER YAP OR KOROR SINCE EXISTING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IN THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT ANY TYPE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE MOSTLY DRY TRADE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR CHUUK AS WELL AS MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ EDSON/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.