From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Dec 17 04:01:41 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBGK1dwV011574 for ; Fri, 17 Dec 2010 04:01:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBG60Z0d027712; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 14:01:22 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4796853 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 14:01:22 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBGK1MYv027477 for ; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 14:01:22 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBGK1Fuf010189 for ; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 14:01:21 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 5DC44144B0001; Thu, 16 Dec 2010 14:01:15 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101216200115.5DC44144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2010 14:01:15 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 430 FXPQ60 PGUM 162001 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 601 AM CHST FRI DEC 17 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH RANDOM AREAS OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS EVIDENT OUT TO THE EAST BETWEEN 150E AND 160E. A COLD FRONT IS PRESENT ABOUT 700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SAT-SUN. AN ODD FEATURE OF THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IS A GENERAL DROP IN SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM AROUND 1009-1011 MB SUNDAY TO 1003-1005 MB TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THAT THE GFS DEVELOPS ACROSS A BROAD EXPANSE OF THE PACIFIC SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT NW OF THE MARIANAS. GFS DOESN'T PRODUCE MUCH WEATHER WITH THIS...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING... ESPECIALLY AS THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW DROPPING PRESSURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. && .MARINE... NW SWELL SHOULD BEGIN ARRIVING SATURDAY...RISING TO 4 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWINGING OVER TO NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE PREVAILING NE SWELL AROUND MIDWEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DRY PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE RMI...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY BROAD LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF WAKE ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A SHEAR LINE FARTHER SOUTH...BUT SHOULD STALL AROUND 10N. NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR LINE WILL ALTER WINDS AT MAJURO AND KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DIMINISHING SHOWERS APPROACHING CHUUK AND SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE OVER CHUUK. A WEAK SURFACE NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH EXISTS EAST OF YAP BUT CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SUBSIDENCE ATTRIBUTED TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS YAP AND PALAU. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER KOROR BUT SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.