Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2010 14:01:15 -0600

430 
FXPQ60 PGUM 162001
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
601 AM CHST FRI DEC 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS
WITH RANDOM AREAS OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS EVIDENT OUT TO THE EAST
BETWEEN 150E AND 160E. A COLD FRONT IS PRESENT ABOUT 700 MILES NW
OF THE ISLANDS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT STILL ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SAT-SUN. 

AN ODD FEATURE OF THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS IS A GENERAL DROP IN SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM
AROUND 1009-1011 MB SUNDAY TO 1003-1005 MB TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS THAT THE GFS DEVELOPS ACROSS A BROAD EXPANSE OF THE PACIFIC
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT NW OF THE MARIANAS. GFS DOESN'T
PRODUCE MUCH WEATHER WITH THIS...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING...
ESPECIALLY AS THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW DROPPING
PRESSURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NW SWELL SHOULD BEGIN ARRIVING SATURDAY...RISING TO 4 FEET SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SWINGING OVER TO NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE PREVAILING NE SWELL AROUND
MIDWEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS. 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE RMI...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH SATURDAY. 
MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY BROAD LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF WAKE ISLAND 
OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A SHEAR LINE FARTHER SOUTH...BUT 
SHOULD STALL AROUND 10N. NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR LINE WILL ALTER WINDS 
AT MAJURO AND KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY 
FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DIMINISHING SHOWERS APPROACHING 
CHUUK AND SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING DRIER 
CONDITIONS TO MOVE OVER CHUUK. A WEAK SURFACE NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH 
EXISTS EAST OF YAP BUT CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AS 
SUBSIDENCE ATTRIBUTED TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE 
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS YAP AND PALAU. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
KOROR BUT SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS

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