From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Dec 18 04:58:21 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBHKwKCw022912 for ; Sat, 18 Dec 2010 04:58:21 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBH0RZxu027712; Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:58:06 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4808426 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:58:06 -0600 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBHKw5Ds026877 for ; Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:58:06 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBHKvwvC012646 for ; Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:58:05 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id EE6B4144B0001; Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:57:57 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101217205757.EE6B4144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:57:57 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 467 FXPQ60 PGUM 172057 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 657 AM CHST SAT DEC 18 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE EAST AS FAR AS 152E...WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS PRESENT OUT BEYOND THAT. && .DISCUSSION... FORECAST BASICALLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT TRIMMED BACK TODAY'S SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS. GFS STILL FORECASTING A FALL IN SURFACE PRESSURE MON AND TUE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. BUT THE GFS DOESN'T PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGFIFICANT WEATHER WITH THIS EVENT BEYOND A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .MARINE... NW SWELL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TODAY AT 2 FT...REACHING 4 FT MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING SURF ON W-NW FACING REEFS...BUT RIP RISK SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY EAST OF MAJURO REMAIN ISOLATED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. A SMALL DISTURBANCE PASSING POHNPEI WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS BUT SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHEAR LINE PUSHES CLOSER TO 10N. MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR LINE STALLING NEAR 9N TO 10N MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK NORTH BY MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE DRY PATTERN OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL ALSO PREVAIL AT CHUUK THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER YAP TODAY ALLOWING CLEARING TO MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION OVER THE PALAU AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL FORM AND STAY JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KOROR. STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE PHILLIPINES WILL GENERATE A NORTH SWELL WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE AT YAP AND KOROR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SWELL SHOULD BE SMALL ENOUGH TO PREVENT A HIGH SURF EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.