Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:57:57 -0600

467 
FXPQ60 PGUM 172057
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
657 AM CHST SAT DEC 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM THE
EAST...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
EAST AS FAR AS 152E...WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS PRESENT OUT BEYOND
THAT. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST BASICALLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT TRIMMED
BACK TODAY'S SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS. GFS STILL FORECASTING
A FALL IN SURFACE PRESSURE MON AND TUE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BUT THE GFS DOESN'T PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGFIFICANT WEATHER
WITH THIS EVENT BEYOND A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NW SWELL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TODAY AT 2 FT...REACHING 4 FT MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING SURF ON W-NW FACING REEFS...BUT RIP
RISK SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY EAST OF MAJURO 
REMAIN ISOLATED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON 
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. A SMALL DISTURBANCE PASSING POHNPEI WILL 
BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS BUT SHOWER COVERAGE 
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE 
SOUTHEAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHEAR LINE PUSHES 
CLOSER TO 10N. MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR LINE STALLING NEAR 9N TO 10N 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK NORTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DRY PATTERN OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL ALSO PREVAIL AT CHUUK 
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER YAP TODAY ALLOWING 
CLEARING TO MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW 
INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION OVER THE PALAU AREA BEGINNING 
SUNDAY BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL FORM AND STAY JUST TO 
THE SOUTHWEST OF KOROR. STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
OVER THE PHILLIPINES WILL GENERATE A NORTH SWELL WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE 
AT YAP AND KOROR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SWELL SHOULD BE SMALL 
ENOUGH TO PREVENT A HIGH SURF EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.