Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2010 02:50:13 -0600

322 
FXPQ60 PGUM 180849
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
649 PM CHST SAT DEC 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEUTRAL ZONE SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT AND A SHEAR LINE IS
PROVIDING GENTLE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHEAR LINE HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN TIP OF
THE CNMI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS DECELERATION ON
THE SHEAR LINE'S SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. JUDGING BY ITS CURRENT
SPEED...IT COULD ARRIVE AT SAIPAN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND OVER GUAM
BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND WINDS THRU MONDAY
NIGHT DURING THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR LINE. DECIDED NOT TO ADD
SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST YET...DAY SHIFT ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE BETTER
IDEA ON THE FUTURE STATUS OF THE SHEAR LINE. WITH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OF JAPAN MIDWEEK...DECREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE
MARIANAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR-GALE WINDS NORTHWEST OF A SHEAR LINE ARE
GOING TO INTRODUCE RISING SURF ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING SHORES
OF THE MARIANAS BY MONDAY MORNING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...SWELLS AND
WIND WAVES FROM NORTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE WILL ALSO
CREATE SIMILAR PHENOMENA FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES. COMBINED SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL BUILD TO AROUND 8 FEET BY MONDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LOW SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND HAS REACHED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND TRANSFORMED INTO A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENGENDERED A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO JUST EAST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THIS IN
TERN IS CREATING A GENTLE WIND REGIME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
OVER MAJURO. FARTHER WEST...A DRY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP SHOWERS AT ISOLATED CATEGORY OVER BOTH KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL ENHANCE A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA...PROMOTING MORE DRY
WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THIS AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AREA EXPECTED THRU LONGER TERM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/SIMPSON

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