From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Dec 19 05:54:38 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBILsaQk020968 for ; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 05:54:37 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBI60DcR027712; Sat, 18 Dec 2010 15:54:26 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4817182 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 18 Dec 2010 15:54:26 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBILsQmR013963 for ; Sat, 18 Dec 2010 15:54:26 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBILsJuZ024663 for ; Sat, 18 Dec 2010 15:54:25 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id C63023FE0084; Sat, 18 Dec 2010 15:54:18 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101218215418.C63023FE0084@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2010 15:54:18 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 296 FXPQ60 PGUM 182153 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 753 AM CHST SUN DEC 19 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GUAM WITH ALMOST NO SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WATERS. THE ZONE OF SHOWERS IS SLIPPING TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO AFFECT ON THE MARIANAS TODAY. && .DISCUSSION... GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES ONLY GRANT THE MARIANAS ABOUT 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS...IF YOU SUBTRACT THE 0.45 INCHES THE GFS40 SAYS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE FALLEN BUT DID NOT. LOOKS LIKE DRY TIMES AHEAD AS DRY SEASON CONTINUES. THE KBDI FOR YESTERDAY OF 536 IS THE HIGHEST FOR DECEMBER 18 IN OUR WHOLE 53 YEAR DATABASE. DRY SEASON STARTED EARLY AND STRONG...AND LOOKS TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE YEAR. THE SHEAR LINE THAT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL AND BEGIN GRADUALLY WASHING OUT. THEREFORE UPDATED THE WINDS AND WIND DEPENDENT GRIDS LIKE GUSTS AND WAVES...LOWERING THE COMBINED SEAS AND THE SURF BY ABOUT A FOOT. LEFT THE CLOUDS IN FOR NOW BUT HAVE A FEELING THOSE WILL DISAPPEAR FOR THE DAYTIME FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A DRY WEEK AHEAD IS EXPECTED FOR POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST OF POHNPEI BUT WILL STAY OUT OF THE MARINE ZONE AS THE SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. INCREASING TRADE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE DISTURBANCE PASSING POHNPEI MAY BRIEFLY BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CHUUK INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT CHUUK THROUGH THE WEEK. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF YAP AND KOROR. MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BRING THE ACTIVITY INTO KOROR BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CURRENT ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENT FLOW INDICATE THAT FURTHER WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST FOR YAP AND ESPECIALLY KOROR WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR A POSSIBLE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST UPDATE. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.