Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2010 16:54:10 -0600

743 
FXPQ60 PGUM 192253
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
853 AM CHST MON DEC 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TRADES AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. THE SHEAR LINE REMAINS NORTH OF SAIPAN...NEAR ANATAHAN. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT LOWERING PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WINDS/PRESSURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LIGHT WEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MARSHALLS OVERNIGHT.
THE NEUTRAL POINT OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MARSHALLS NOW STRETCHES TOWARDS POHNPEI. ALL MODELS INITIALIZE THE
CURRENT SET UP WELL WITH A CIRCULATION NEAR 20N180 AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS MAJURO...KWAJALEIN...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. SKY CONDITIONS ARE
A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONVERGE ALONG A BELT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR
POHNPEI...ACROSS THE MARSHALLS AND BEYOND THE DATELINE. DESPITE THE
DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED CELLS OF CONVECTION...THE FORECAST
REMAINS QUITE DRY ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK SITS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE BELT OF CLOUDS THAT HAS 
DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. SHOWERS THAT ARE PRESENT NEAR 
CHUUK WILL BE LIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN KOROR AND CHUUK 
HAS CREATED MODERATE CONVECTION. MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A PASSAGE 
SOUTH OF KOROR. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM 
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH THE WEEK. SURF CONDITIONS AT KOROR AND YAP WILL BE A LITTLE 
HIGHER TODAY AND TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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