From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Dec 20 06:54:31 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBJMsU5q028694 for ; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 06:54:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBI3L8iH011741; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 16:54:17 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4826061 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 16:54:17 -0600 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBJMsGpj001627 for ; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 16:54:16 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBJMsA9R012984 for ; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 16:54:16 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3895B144B0001; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 16:54:10 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101219225410.3895B144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2010 16:54:10 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 743 FXPQ60 PGUM 192253 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 853 AM CHST MON DEC 20 2010 .SYNOPSIS... GENTLE TRADES AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THE SHEAR LINE REMAINS NORTH OF SAIPAN...NEAR ANATAHAN. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT LOWERING PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL WINDS/PRESSURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LIGHT WEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MARSHALLS OVERNIGHT. THE NEUTRAL POINT OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MARSHALLS NOW STRETCHES TOWARDS POHNPEI. ALL MODELS INITIALIZE THE CURRENT SET UP WELL WITH A CIRCULATION NEAR 20N180 AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MAJURO...KWAJALEIN...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. SKY CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONVERGE ALONG A BELT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR POHNPEI...ACROSS THE MARSHALLS AND BEYOND THE DATELINE. DESPITE THE DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED CELLS OF CONVECTION...THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE DRY ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CHUUK SITS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE BELT OF CLOUDS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. SHOWERS THAT ARE PRESENT NEAR CHUUK WILL BE LIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN KOROR AND CHUUK HAS CREATED MODERATE CONVECTION. MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A PASSAGE SOUTH OF KOROR. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. SURF CONDITIONS AT KOROR AND YAP WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY AND TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.