From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Dec 20 13:46:50 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBK5knun010848 for ; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 13:46:50 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBJJXehg022691; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 23:46:35 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4827624 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 23:46:35 -0600 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBK5kYIY019823 for ; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 23:46:34 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBK5kS9b015055 for ; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 23:46:34 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 32D773FE0035; Sun, 19 Dec 2010 23:46:28 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101220054628.32D773FE0035@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2010 23:46:28 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 466 FXPQ60 PGUM 200545 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 345 PM CHST MON DEC 20 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE SHEAR LINE REMAINS PERCHED JUST NORTH OF ANATAHAN...BUT THE OTHERWISE SOLID CLOUD BAND HAS A LARGE BREAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE MARIANAS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. && .DISCUSSION... GFS SEEMS TO BE MODEL OF CHOICE...AS UKMET TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE OVER SAIPAN LATE TONIGHT. GFS BRINGS THE SHEAR LINE--OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT--INTO THE MARIANAS WED AND THUR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE...GFS SWINGS WINDS AROUND TO NNE...POSSIBLY BRINGING DOWN A LITTLE ODOR FROM ANATAHAN. && .MARINE... NORTH SWELL SHOULD REMAIN AT 5 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST SWELL. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... AN EAST-MOVING CIRCULATION NEAR 20N178W IS ENCLOSED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN MARSHALLS TO NEAR MIDWAY ISLAND. WEST WINDS CONVERGING WITH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WINDS HAVE FORMED A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF KOSRAE ACROSS KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO BEYOND 10N AT THE DATELINE. MODELS EVENTUALLY TAKE THE CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...WHICH WILL IN TURN SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAJURO AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION WEST OF CHUUK. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEVELOPED WHILE STAYING PUT BETWEEN CHUUK AND YAP. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT YAP AND PALAU ON TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AS THE CIRCULATION EDGES SOUTHWESTWARD. TRADE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK ONCE THIS CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST AND THE CIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF EASTERN MICRONESIA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET AT PALAU AND YAP WILL SUBSIDE ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET TUESDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.