Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2010 23:46:28 -0600

466 
FXPQ60 PGUM 200545
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
345 PM CHST MON DEC 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SHEAR LINE REMAINS PERCHED JUST NORTH OF ANATAHAN...BUT THE
OTHERWISE SOLID CLOUD BAND HAS A LARGE BREAK IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MARIANAS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS SEEMS TO BE MODEL OF CHOICE...AS UKMET TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST
WINDS SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE OVER SAIPAN LATE TONIGHT. GFS BRINGS
THE SHEAR LINE--OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT--INTO THE MARIANAS WED AND
THUR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT STILL ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE...GFS SWINGS WINDS AROUND
TO NNE...POSSIBLY BRINGING DOWN A LITTLE ODOR FROM ANATAHAN.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH SWELL SHOULD REMAIN AT 5 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
PREVAILING NORTHEAST SWELL.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
AN EAST-MOVING CIRCULATION NEAR 20N178W IS ENCLOSED WITHIN A LARGE
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN MARSHALLS
TO NEAR MIDWAY ISLAND. WEST WINDS CONVERGING WITH SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH WINDS HAVE FORMED A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT STRETCHES FROM
NORTH OF KOSRAE ACROSS KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TO BEYOND 10N AT THE DATELINE. MODELS EVENTUALLY TAKE THE
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...WHICH
WILL IN TURN SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST
BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAJURO AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION WEST OF 
CHUUK. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER 
DEVELOPED WHILE STAYING PUT BETWEEN CHUUK AND YAP. WINDS WILL BECOME 
MORE NORTHERLY AT YAP AND PALAU ON TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AS THE CIRCULATION EDGES SOUTHWESTWARD.
TRADE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK ONCE THIS CIRCULATION
WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST AND THE CIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF
EASTERN MICRONESIA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FEET AT PALAU AND YAP WILL SUBSIDE ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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