Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 16:01:14 -0600

899 
FXPQ60 PGUM 202200
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST TUE DEC 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS.
SATELLITE SHOWS FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO THE EAST THAT SHOULD
START TO FILTER IN TO THE MARIANAS WATERS. A SHEAR LINE PASSES
NEAR SAIPAN AND ACTIVITY COULD FIRE UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ECMWF-HIRES AND GFS40 SHOW DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING ENTRENCHED
OVER MUCH OF MICRONESIA. 10 DAY ECMWF-HIRES RAINFALL FOR GUAM IS
0.43 INCHES. 10 DAY GFS40 RAINFALL FOR GUAM IS ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.
THIS SEEMS A LOT HIGHER...BUT CONSIDERING THAT ALMOST HALF AN
INCH IS SUPPOSED TO HAVE FALLEN ALREADY AND WE ONLY RECEIVED A
TRACE IT IS A BIT SUSPECT. NONETHELESS THERE ARE INCREASED CLOUDS
IN THE AREA SO GRIDS NEEDED NO CHANGES...JUST WORDED TODAY AS
PARTLY SUNNY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM OMEKA NEAR 
21N179W. LIGHT WESTERLIES REMAIN ACROSS THE MARSHALLS AND NEAR 
KOSRAE. AS OMEKA LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LIES ALONG 
THE NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE THAT CURVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS 
THE CIRCULATION. THIS LINE CURRENTLY PASSES BETWEEN POHNPEI AND 
KOSRAE...TO SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN AND NORTH OF MAJURO. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH WEST OF CHUUK. MODELS CARRY 
THIS AS A WEAK CIRCULATION THAT WILL MEANDER BETWEEN KOROR AND CHUUK 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS HOLDS ON TO THE CLOSED CIRCULATION 
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD AS AN OPEN-WAVE
TROUGH. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS 5
DAY TOTAL RAIN INDICATES LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FOR BOTH KOROR AND
CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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