From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Dec 21 06:01:37 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBKM1avf011460 for ; Tue, 21 Dec 2010 06:01:37 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBJJXeXe022691; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 16:01:24 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4837743 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 16:01:24 -0600 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBKM1NXp000222 for ; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 16:01:23 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBKM1HRR011720 for ; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 16:01:23 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 010F7144B0001; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 16:01:14 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101220220116.010F7144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 16:01:14 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 899 FXPQ60 PGUM 202200 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM CHST TUE DEC 21 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. SATELLITE SHOWS FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO THE EAST THAT SHOULD START TO FILTER IN TO THE MARIANAS WATERS. A SHEAR LINE PASSES NEAR SAIPAN AND ACTIVITY COULD FIRE UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. && .DISCUSSION... ECMWF-HIRES AND GFS40 SHOW DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF MICRONESIA. 10 DAY ECMWF-HIRES RAINFALL FOR GUAM IS 0.43 INCHES. 10 DAY GFS40 RAINFALL FOR GUAM IS ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. THIS SEEMS A LOT HIGHER...BUT CONSIDERING THAT ALMOST HALF AN INCH IS SUPPOSED TO HAVE FALLEN ALREADY AND WE ONLY RECEIVED A TRACE IT IS A BIT SUSPECT. NONETHELESS THERE ARE INCREASED CLOUDS IN THE AREA SO GRIDS NEEDED NO CHANGES...JUST WORDED TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM OMEKA NEAR 21N179W. LIGHT WESTERLIES REMAIN ACROSS THE MARSHALLS AND NEAR KOSRAE. AS OMEKA LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LIES ALONG THE NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE THAT CURVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CIRCULATION. THIS LINE CURRENTLY PASSES BETWEEN POHNPEI AND KOSRAE...TO SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN AND NORTH OF MAJURO. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH WEST OF CHUUK. MODELS CARRY THIS AS A WEAK CIRCULATION THAT WILL MEANDER BETWEEN KOROR AND CHUUK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS HOLDS ON TO THE CLOSED CIRCULATION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD AS AN OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS 5 DAY TOTAL RAIN INDICATES LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FOR BOTH KOROR AND CHUUK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.