Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 23:44:08 -0600

142 
FXPQ60 PGUM 210544
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
344 PM CHST TUE DEC 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ISLAND-EFFECT SHOWERS THAT SOAKED THE AIRPORT WITH ABOUT 1.7
INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ARE SUBSIDING...LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT
WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE SHEAR LINE IS VERY DIFFUSE...AND
APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF SAIPAN. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A REPEAT OF ISLAND SHOWERS SEEMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT NORTHEAST...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE
SHEAR LINE LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. GFS HINTS AT THE SHEAR LINE
REVIVING ITSELF FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL
RUN OR TWO BEFORE INCORPORATING THAT INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM OMEKA...NOW SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND...CONTINUES TO 
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY...LOW-LEVEL 
RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN WHICH 
WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO REDEVELOP BY LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS 
WILL PERSIST FOR THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE BY THE WEEKEND SO HAVE ADDED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU FROM CONVERGENT NORTHWEST WINDS. LATEST SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD PALAU. HAVE 
ADDED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT DRIER 
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK CIRCULATION 
WEST OF CHUUK IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE EQUATOR...OPENING INTO A 
TROUGH. BY FRIDAY...TRADE WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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