From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Dec 21 13:44:29 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBL5iRe0021565 for ; Tue, 21 Dec 2010 13:44:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBKM1rsm022691; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 23:44:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4842138 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 23:44:15 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBL5iENw028426 for ; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 23:44:14 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBL5i8LS005448 for ; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 23:44:14 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2757C3FE0037; Mon, 20 Dec 2010 23:44:08 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101221054408.2757C3FE0037@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 23:44:08 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 142 FXPQ60 PGUM 210544 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 344 PM CHST TUE DEC 21 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE ISLAND-EFFECT SHOWERS THAT SOAKED THE AIRPORT WITH ABOUT 1.7 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ARE SUBSIDING...LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE SHEAR LINE IS VERY DIFFUSE...AND APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF SAIPAN. && .DISCUSSION... A REPEAT OF ISLAND SHOWERS SEEMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE SHEAR LINE LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. GFS HINTS AT THE SHEAR LINE REVIVING ITSELF FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE INCORPORATING THAT INTO THE FORECAST. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... TROPICAL STORM OMEKA...NOW SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND...CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO REDEVELOP BY LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE WEEKEND SO HAVE ADDED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SOUTHEAST OF PALAU FROM CONVERGENT NORTHWEST WINDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD PALAU. HAVE ADDED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK CIRCULATION WEST OF CHUUK IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE EQUATOR...OPENING INTO A TROUGH. BY FRIDAY...TRADE WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL LOCATIONS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.