Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2010 15:46:21 -0600

296 
FXPQ60 PGUM 212146
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
746 AM CHST WED DEC 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
VISIBLE SATTELITE SHOWS THAT THE REMAINS OF A SHEAR LINE PASS NEAR
GUAM. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...WINDS
AND SHOWERS FOR THE MARIANAS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEPT INHERITED FORECAST OF PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS GOOD
CONSIDERING THE NEARBY SHEAR LINE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING BUT WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISLAND EFFECT SHOWERS.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS POTENT AS YESTERDAY WHEN THE
OFFICE RECEIVED 1.70 INCHES...BUT IT SHOULD HAPPEN NONETHELESS.
WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY WHICH MAY PUSH THE SHOWERS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN GUAM...AND COULD PREVENT ISLAND
EFFECT ENTIRELY ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE 00Z SOUNDING WILL SHOW
IF ANY UPDATE IS REQUIRED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
REGION. ASCAT AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOW SOUTHEASTERLIES CREEPING IN 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALLS. AS THE LARGE WIND FIELD SOUTHWEST OF 
TROPICAL STORM OMEKA LIFTS NORTHWARD...WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST REGIONALLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SIGNS OF A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK ARE HARD TO FIND IN 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ASCAT DOES SUPPORT MODEL INITIALIZATION 
OF A WEAK CIRCULATION IN THAT AREA. MODELS AGREE IN QUICKLY 
DISSOLVING THE CIRCULATION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES SOUTH 
TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL 
SLOWLY TURN EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS AT KOROR ARE 
IMPROVING THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE WEST. 
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK...BUT GFS MOVES 
A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS YAP EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH A SMALL 
INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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