From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Dec 22 05:46:43 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBLLkgaC020384 for ; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 05:46:43 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBLKNBh6022691; Tue, 21 Dec 2010 15:46:28 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4852522 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 21 Dec 2010 15:46:28 -0600 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBLLkSpd001703 for ; Tue, 21 Dec 2010 15:46:28 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBLLkL3F022825 for ; Tue, 21 Dec 2010 15:46:28 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DC7023FE0008; Tue, 21 Dec 2010 15:46:21 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101221214621.DC7023FE0008@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2010 15:46:21 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 296 FXPQ60 PGUM 212146 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 746 AM CHST WED DEC 22 2010 .SYNOPSIS... VISIBLE SATTELITE SHOWS THAT THE REMAINS OF A SHEAR LINE PASS NEAR GUAM. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...WINDS AND SHOWERS FOR THE MARIANAS TODAY. && .DISCUSSION... KEPT INHERITED FORECAST OF PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE NEARBY SHEAR LINE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING BUT WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISLAND EFFECT SHOWERS. MOST LIKELY IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS POTENT AS YESTERDAY WHEN THE OFFICE RECEIVED 1.70 INCHES...BUT IT SHOULD HAPPEN NONETHELESS. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY WHICH MAY PUSH THE SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN GUAM...AND COULD PREVENT ISLAND EFFECT ENTIRELY ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE 00Z SOUNDING WILL SHOW IF ANY UPDATE IS REQUIRED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ASCAT AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOW SOUTHEASTERLIES CREEPING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALLS. AS THE LARGE WIND FIELD SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM OMEKA LIFTS NORTHWARD...WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE EAST REGIONALLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SIGNS OF A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK ARE HARD TO FIND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ASCAT DOES SUPPORT MODEL INITIALIZATION OF A WEAK CIRCULATION IN THAT AREA. MODELS AGREE IN QUICKLY DISSOLVING THE CIRCULATION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY TURN EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS AT KOROR ARE IMPROVING THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE WEST. FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK...BUT GFS MOVES A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS YAP EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.