From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Dec 22 16:17:46 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBM8HjfK030156 for ; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 16:17:45 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBLKNB0x022691; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 02:17:31 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4856298 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 02:17:31 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBM8HVTI002515 for ; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 02:17:31 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBM8HPE2017560 for ; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 02:17:31 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 030433FE001B; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 02:17:24 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101222081725.030433FE001B@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2010 02:17:24 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 343 FXPQ60 PGUM 220817 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 617 PM CHST WED DEC 22 2010 SYNOPSIS... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHEAR LINE SOUTH OF GUAM...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF THAT LINE. AFTER ALL THE ISLAND SHOWERS OVER GUAM ON TUESDAY...IT HAS BEEN MUCH QUIETER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ISLAND SHOWERS IN LIMITED MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT THE GUAM AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY 1003 MB...UNUSUALLY LOW FOR DECEMBER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS. DISCUSSION... GFS/UKMET STILL SHOWING DISJOINTED SHEAR LINE FRAGMENTS NEAR THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY COALESCING INTO A SINGLE STRONGER SHEAR LINE OVER THE WEEKEND. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...SO FOR NOW GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. COULD SEE MORE SHOWERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE DEFINITE INDICATIONS IN THE NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS BEFORE PUTTING THAT INTO THE FORECAST. EASTERN MICRONESIA... LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ASCAT ANALYSIS AND MODELS SHOW SOUTHEAST WINDS CREEPING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALLS. AS THE LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND A RIDGE IN IN EASTERN MICRONESIA LIFTS NORTHWARD...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE WEEKEND. WESTERN MICRONESIA... LITTLE CHANGE TO WESTERN MICRONESIA FORECASTS EXCEPT FOR FIRST PERIOD OF KOROR FORECAST. ASCAT...MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE INDICATE A SURFACE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF KOROR. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING AT KOROR AMOUNTING TO 0.12 INCHES IN THE LAST SIX OR 7 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH...AND MODELS KEEP KOROR NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR THESE REASONS OPTED TO CHANGE KOROR FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN THE LONGER TERM...MODELS KEEP KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS DOES MOVE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS YAP EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.