From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Dec 23 05:52:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBMLqP3w028342 for ; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 05:52:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBMCxvHa000588; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 15:52:09 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4847696 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 15:52:09 -0600 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBMLq8WA001956 for ; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 15:52:08 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBMLq2o4006015 for ; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 15:52:08 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3000A3FE0005; Wed, 22 Dec 2010 15:52:02 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101222215202.3000A3FE0005@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2010 15:52:02 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 998 FXPQ60 PGUM 222151 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 751 AM CHST THU DEC 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM MOVING FARTHER SOUTH. TO THE NORTH SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS... A DRY SEASON TRADE-WIND PATTERN. && .DISCUSSION... ALLOWED FOR ISLAND EFFECT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY AND MAINTAINED PARTLY SUNNY WORDING. AFTER THAT WINDS PICK UP A BIT SO DECREASED CLOUDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING. OTHERWISE THE GENERAL PATTERN WAS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE GRIDS. BOTH ECMWF-HIRES AND GFS40 MAINTAIN A WINTER TIME PATTERN OF NEAR APPROACHES BY SHEAR LINES. NEED TO WAIT A FEW DAYS BEFORE WE TRY TO DETERMINE WHICH ARE NEAR MISSES AND WHICH WILL ACTUALLY AFFECT OUR WEATHER. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN SEA AND SURF HEIGHTS AT A BIT BELOW SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THE SWELLS WILL REMAIN NEAR THESE HEIGHTS SO AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A PERSISTING SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT NEAR WAKE ISLAND ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THRU FRIDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE DATE LINE BY THE WEEKEND...IT WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE RIDGE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW A TRADE-WIND SURGE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE DATE LINE TO MIGRATE WESTWARD. INCREASING TRADE CONVERGENCE COULD INTRODUCE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST INTO NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY RAISE SURF HEIGHTS ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL SPREAD SIMILAR SURF CONDITIONS INTO KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALLS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MIGHT PRODUCE A HIGH SURF EVENT ON KOSRAE BY SATURDAY...WHICH NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINING SOUTH OF BOTH CHUUK AND YAP...DRY AIR AND CONVERGENT FLOW AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AT CHUUK THRU SATURDAY AND FOR YAP INTO FRIDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...KOROR WILL EXPERIENCE MORE PASSING SHOWERS THRU FRIDAY. THEN THE RETURN OF A MORE SEASONAL TRADE-WIND PATTERN FROM THE EAST WILL CAUSE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO RETREAT WESTWARD TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. GENTLE TRADES SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER KOROR INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER HEIGHTENING TRADE CONVERGENCE IS GOING TO PUT AN END TO THE QUIET WEATHER ON BOTH CHUUK AND YAP DURING THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.