From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Dec 23 15:26:39 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBN7Qb5p012442 for ; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 15:26:38 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBMCxvsJ000590; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 01:26:20 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4850431 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 01:26:20 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBN7QKCh028192 for ; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 01:26:20 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBN7QEqe012330 for ; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 01:26:20 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DD556144B0001; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 01:26:11 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101223072611.DD556144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 23 Dec 2010 01:26:11 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 578 FXPQ60 PGUM 230726 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 526 PM CHST THU DEC 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS... MORE NORMAL DECEMBER CONDITIONS SLOWLY WORKING BACK IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING BACK TO NORTHEAST AND EAST AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS AND PRESSURE SLOWLY RISING BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS. SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE. && .DISCUSSION... GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY SHEAR-LINE RESURGENCE IN THE MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND...SO SHOULD SEE MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECAST AND REASONING. A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT NEAR WAKE ISLAND ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THRU FRIDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE DATE LINE BY THE WEEKEND...IT WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW A TRADE-WIND SURGE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE DATE LINE TO MOVE WESTWARD. INCREASING TRADE CONVERGENCE COULD INTRODUCE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY RAISE SURF HEIGHTS ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL SPREAD SIMILAR SURF CONDITIONS INTO KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALLS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MIGHT PRODUCE A HIGH SURF EVENT ON KOSRAE BY SATURDAY...WHICH NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINING SOUTH OF BOTH CHUUK AND YAP...DRY AIR AND CONVERGENT FLOW AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AT CHUUK THRU SATURDAY AND FOR YAP INTO FRIDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...KOROR WILL EXPERIENCE MORE PASSING SHOWERS THRU FRIDAY. THEN THE RETURN OF A MORE SEASONAL TRADE-WIND PATTERN FROM THE EAST WILL CAUSE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO RETREAT WESTWARD TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. GENTLE TRADES SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER KOROR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...INCREASING TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PROBABLY PUT AN END TO THE VERY QUIET WEATHER ON BOTH CHUUK AND YAP DURING THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.