Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 2010 01:26:11 -0600

578 
FXPQ60 PGUM 230726
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
526 PM CHST THU DEC 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE NORMAL DECEMBER CONDITIONS SLOWLY WORKING BACK IN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING BACK TO NORTHEAST AND EAST AT MODERATE
TO FRESH LEVELS AND PRESSURE SLOWLY RISING BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
LEVELS. SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
PATCHY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY SHEAR-LINE RESURGENCE IN THE MARIANAS
OVER THE WEEKEND...SO SHOULD SEE MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE BACK TO
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECAST AND REASONING. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT NEAR WAKE ISLAND ALONG WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS ENTIRE REGION
THRU FRIDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE DATE LINE BY THE
WEEKEND...IT WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW A TRADE-WIND SURGE CURRENTLY EAST
OF THE DATE LINE TO MOVE WESTWARD. INCREASING TRADE CONVERGENCE
COULD INTRODUCE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST NEXT WEEK.

A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY RAISE SURF HEIGHTS ACROSS CHUUK AND 
POHNPEI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND
WAVES WILL SPREAD SIMILAR SURF CONDITIONS INTO KOSRAE AND THE
MARSHALLS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MIGHT PRODUCE A HIGH SURF EVENT
ON KOSRAE BY SATURDAY...WHICH NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINING SOUTH OF
BOTH CHUUK AND YAP...DRY AIR AND CONVERGENT FLOW AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AT CHUUK THRU SATURDAY AND
FOR YAP INTO FRIDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH...KOROR WILL EXPERIENCE MORE PASSING SHOWERS THRU FRIDAY.
THEN THE RETURN OF A MORE SEASONAL TRADE-WIND PATTERN FROM THE
EAST WILL CAUSE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO RETREAT WESTWARD
TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. GENTLE TRADES SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER KOROR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...INCREASING
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PROBABLY PUT AN END TO THE VERY QUIET
WEATHER ON BOTH CHUUK AND YAP DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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