From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Dec 24 04:07:59 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBNK7wb6019318 for ; Fri, 24 Dec 2010 04:07:58 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBNIVEvp000588; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:07:45 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4855743 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:07:44 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBNK7icb012845 for ; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:07:44 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBNK7bKI020213 for ; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:07:44 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id E62AD3FE002E; Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:07:35 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101223200737.E62AD3FE002E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:07:35 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 175 FXPQ60 PGUM 232007 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 607 AM CHST FRI DEC 24 2010 .SYNOPSIS... VERY DRY AIR WAS FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST DOMAIN FROM THE NORTH. DEW POINTS AT THE GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAVE EVEN DROPPED BELOW 70 DEGREES AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEAREST AREA OF CLOUDINESS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 149E. && .DISCUSSION... GFS INITIAL MODEL FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ESPECIALLY DRY...SO HAVE TRIMMED FIRST PERIOD POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS IN SIGHT. NEXT SHEAR LINE SHOULD STALL AROUND ANATAHAN ON SATURDAY...THEN BOOMERANG BACK TO THE NORTH. PRIMARY EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO BRING IN A NORTH SWELL BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BUT SWELL HEIGHTS LOOK MODEST. SURF ZONE FORECAST STILL ANTICIPATES MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALLS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISPLACE THE SURFACE RIDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE LINE. THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS OF DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A DRY REGIME AND GENTLE WINDS OVER POHNPEI AND CHUUK INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE DATE LINE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO DIRECT MUCH STRONGER TRADES ACROSS THE DATE LINE TOWARD EASTERN MICRONESIA. AS A RESULT...TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE RISE OVER ALL THE ABOVE LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGHER SURF ON CHUUK AND POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA HEIGHTS SUGGEST SURF WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON EITHER OF THESE LOCATIONS. BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MARSHALLS WESTWARD TO CHUUK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD PRODUCE A HIGH SURF EVENT ON KOSRAE BY SUNDAY...WHICH NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF CHUUK IS NUDGING THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF KOROR. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS TO DOMINATE BOTH YAP AND KOROR THRU THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT NORTHEAST TRADES FILTER OVER KOROR FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT LOCATED BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP MIGHT BRING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER YAP THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED INTRODUCE A WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.