Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2010 02:20:21 -0600

614 
FXPQ60 PGUM 240820
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
620 PM CHST FRI DEC 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHEAR LINE NORTH OF SAIPAN NEAR PAGAN ISLAND HAS SHOWN ALMOST
NO MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY. AFTER A DRY DAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM THE EAST. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
MAKERS ARE SEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A MORE NORMAL PATTERN RETURNING WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SHEAR LINE HANGING UP NORTH
OF THE REGION. PARTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK GOOD OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW NORTH SWELL CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MARIANAS WATERS WILL
RISE TO 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING SURF UP A BIT ALONG
NORTH FACING REEFS. UNLESS SWELL TURNS OUT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED...HIGH SURF SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SOUTHWEST END OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO HELP DISPLACE THE
SURFACE RIDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE LINE. THIS DEPARTING RIDGE
WILL YET PROVIDE ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS OF DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH
KOSRAE AND MAJURO. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE FAIR WEATHER WITH GENTLE WINDS FOR POHNPEI AND
CHUUK WELL INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE DATE LINE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO DIRECT MUCH
STRONGER TRADES ACROSS THE DATE LINE TOWARD EASTERN MICRONESIA.
AS A RESULT...TRADE-CONVERGENCE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
OVER ALL THE ABOVE LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NORTHEAST SWELL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
BASED ON WW3 SPECTRAL WAVE MODEL...SURF WILL BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
SURF ADVISORY ON NORTH EXPOSURES AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...AND KOSRAE BY SUNDAY ALONG NORTH AND EAST EXPOSURES.
THEN...BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE MARSHALLS AND WESTWARD TO CHUUK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
GENTLE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF CHUUK HAS CAUSED THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH OF KOROR. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR AT
MID-UPPER LEVELS TO DOMINATE BOTH YAP AND KOROR THROUGH WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...A SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT NOW LOCATED OVER YAP WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO YAP THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. NEXT
WEEK...THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE-CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE EAST
IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A WETTER PATTERN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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