From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Dec 24 16:20:39 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBO8KccG004145 for ; Fri, 24 Dec 2010 16:20:38 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBNIVEDo000588; Fri, 24 Dec 2010 02:20:28 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4859119 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 24 Dec 2010 02:20:28 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBO8KRaj016700 for ; Fri, 24 Dec 2010 02:20:27 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBO8KLDY005329 for ; Fri, 24 Dec 2010 02:20:27 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 153A5144B0001; Fri, 24 Dec 2010 02:20:21 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101224082021.153A5144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2010 02:20:21 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 614 FXPQ60 PGUM 240820 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 620 PM CHST FRI DEC 24 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A SHEAR LINE NORTH OF SAIPAN NEAR PAGAN ISLAND HAS SHOWN ALMOST NO MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY. AFTER A DRY DAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM THE EAST. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS ARE SEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOW A MORE NORMAL PATTERN RETURNING WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SHEAR LINE HANGING UP NORTH OF THE REGION. PARTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK GOOD OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... A NEW NORTH SWELL CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MARIANAS WATERS WILL RISE TO 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING SURF UP A BIT ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS. UNLESS SWELL TURNS OUT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...HIGH SURF SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE SOUTHWEST END OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO HELP DISPLACE THE SURFACE RIDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE LINE. THIS DEPARTING RIDGE WILL YET PROVIDE ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS OF DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE FAIR WEATHER WITH GENTLE WINDS FOR POHNPEI AND CHUUK WELL INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE DATE LINE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO DIRECT MUCH STRONGER TRADES ACROSS THE DATE LINE TOWARD EASTERN MICRONESIA. AS A RESULT...TRADE-CONVERGENCE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER ALL THE ABOVE LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHEAST SWELL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. BASED ON WW3 SPECTRAL WAVE MODEL...SURF WILL BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON NORTH EXPOSURES AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND KOSRAE BY SUNDAY ALONG NORTH AND EAST EXPOSURES. THEN...BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MARSHALLS AND WESTWARD TO CHUUK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... GENTLE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF CHUUK HAS CAUSED THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH OF KOROR. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR AT MID-UPPER LEVELS TO DOMINATE BOTH YAP AND KOROR THROUGH WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT NOW LOCATED OVER YAP WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO YAP THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK...THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE-CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A WETTER PATTERN. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.